You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
投資者根本不信!“通脹觸頂”解讀不受歡迎 分析師:股市信號完全不同 市場指標呈現分歧
uSMART盈立智投 04-14 10:16

FX168財經報社(香港)訊 美國核心消費通脹的月增幅低於預期,市場上有許多分析都將其解讀爲,通脹觸頂跡象已經顯現,刺激美債收益率下滑,美國股市彈升。但部分專家警告,從兩大經濟敏感類股的表現看來,投資人不覺得物價壓力已經來到最高點。他們強調,股市信號完全不同,市場指標分歧。

Renaissance Macro Research分析師Kevin Dempter出具報告稱,能源股和健康照護股的相對錶現,能即時顯示投資人對通脹觸頂的看法。回顧歷史,通脹到頂時,消費者物價指數(CPI)數據會衝破12個月最高點,而且接下來12個月的數據不會超越此一峯值。此種時刻,羅素3000指數中健康照護股通常表現最佳,能源股則墊底。可是目前爲止,能源股績效持續稱冠。

(來源:MarketWatch)

Dempter繼續寫道,近來健康照護股的報酬揚升,但是CPI數值公佈後隔日,該類股表現差過大盤,能源股躍居績優股。相對於健康照護股,能源股維持強力的上行趨勢,暗示市場相信通脹尚未觸頂。

主要追蹤美國能源類股的SPDR能源指數基金(Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund),13日大漲1.49%,收報79.59美元,創下2015年5月4日以來新高,2022年迄今漲幅達43.41%。另外,SPDR健康照護類股ETF(Healthcare Select Sector SPDR ETF),13日攀升0.49%,收報139.31美元,2022年迄今下跌1.12%。

美國CNBC報道,週二發佈的美國3月份CPI年增8.5%,創1981年來新高。排除波動較大的糧價和能源價格,核心CPI年增幅爲6.5%、符合預期。另外,核心CPI的月增幅爲0.3%、低於外界預期的0.5%。部分專家認爲,美國通脹可能已經觸頂,如果尚未觸頂,那也正在摸頂的階段。

美國勞工部週三公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)年增11.2%,高於市場預期的年增10.6%,改寫歷史新高,顯示出通脹持續惡化,市場幾乎篤定美聯儲5月利率會議將升息2碼。美聯儲理事華勒(Christopher Waller)受訪時預期,通脹可能在3月份觸頂,並且將開始回落。

同日稍早,英國公佈3月消費者物價指數(CPI)年增7%,是1982年3月以來最大增幅,月增率1.1%,兩者雙雙高於市場預期。

談到通脹課題,就需要聚焦下升息措施。摩根大通爲美國第一季超級財報週揭開不詳序曲,第一季淨利較2021年同期大減42%,主要是受到西方對俄羅斯的制裁引發市場混亂衝擊。小摩首席執行官戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)警告,美聯儲抗通脹時意外導致經濟衰退的風險正在增加。

(來源:CNBC)

小摩第一季度提列9.02億美元的信用卡逾期備抵呆帳,相較之下一年之前卻將備抵呆帳餘減提52億美元,小摩也認列5.24億美元的俄羅斯相關資產減損。戴蒙曾於年度股東信上坦言,雖然管理層並不擔憂對俄羅斯的曝險,但未來仍恐造成10億美元損失。上述兩大因素,令小摩第一季每股盈餘減少0.36美元。

戴蒙也強調,儘管經濟至少有望持續成長至2022年第三季,之後卻難以預測,主要是受通脹與美聯儲的量化緊縮(QT)貨幣政策影響。他只是單純警告前方烏雲密佈,這些烏雲可能消失、也可能不會。他說,“我並未預測經濟將衰退。但是否可能如此?當然。”

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account