電子煙國標正式出臺，長期龍頭企業集中度提升可期
事項：
4月12日，電子煙強制國家標準正式發佈，於10月1日起正式生效。
來源：華創證券
評論：
正式國標與二次徵求意見稿基本一致，無邊際利空。主要內容：1）口味嚴格限制爲菸草風味，添加劑數量爲101種，包含甜味劑、涼味劑等，預計未來主流口味爲基於菸草風的混合口味（參考傳統捲菸）。2）菸鹼應提取自菸草，合成尼古丁不被許可。3）霧化物菸鹼濃度不高於2%，目前市場主流產品濃度爲3%，相關生產環節需重新調整。
口味煙彈過渡期仍不確定，待後續解讀文件出臺。5月1日管理辦法施行，其後預計：5月生產端牌照審批、發放，6月初至中旬零售許可證審批、發放，6月中旬統一電子煙交易平臺上線。10月1日國標生效，全流程監管體系搭建完成。管理辦法與國標生效間的6個月內，口味煙彈生產、零售情況仍不確定，推演下有三種情形：1）生產、銷售同時及許可，過渡期相對寬鬆。2）允許銷售、禁止生產，逐步清理市場庫存。3）生產、銷售同時禁止，行業洗牌加快。具體細則有待後續文件出臺。
行業出清確定，看好龍頭製造。全流程監管體制下，市場短期受衝擊，長期看：1）霧化電子煙本質爲尼古丁傳輸形式，下遊需求韌性較強的，對消費者口味接受度不宜過度悲觀。2）菸草味還原對提取物分離及組合技術要求更高，技術側倒逼行業出清。3）集合店模式下，競爭要素迴歸產品，下遊對製造端綜合實力訴求提升。
公司未雨綢繆，有望受益行業集中度提升。思摩爾國際目前積極準備符合國標的新煙彈產品，做底線思維考慮，假設5月起停止口味煙彈製造，待生產許可通過及新產品過審後，短期銷量或受口味切換影響（終端禁止銷售口味煙前大量囤貨），但尼古丁傳輸且減傷減害的核心需求是電子煙的需求本質，因此參考美國20年初頒佈口味禁令後，起初3個月品牌方和門店去庫存，後銷售恢復到禁令前水平，疊加思摩爾的產品研發競爭力或更爲突出，中期國內市場不必過於悲觀。在前述的未來國內市場環境下，我們認爲優質研發製造資源的稀缺性愈加突出，公司有望受益行業的持續整合。
看好行業龍頭長期成長，維持“強推”評級。考慮公司加大研發投入、加深技術壁壘，構建長期護城河的經營戰略，以及國內市場全流程納入監管、行業磨合期產生的短期衝擊，我們預計公司2022-24年歸母淨利潤48.2/68.6/79.6億元（前值48.1/68.4 /79.4億元），對應當前股價PE爲16.4/11.5/9.9倍。DCF法估值給予目標價23.8港元（前值25.7港元），維持“強推”評級。
風險提示：行業競爭加劇，客戶訂單流失
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