標普料今年煤炭合約價將跌至每噸介乎570-770元人幣
標普預計,2022年期間煤炭合約價將跌入每噸570-770元人民幣區間,遠低於2021年10月每噸一度超2,500元的價位,顯示價格管制作用及氣候變化目標下,煤電需求減弱,對於標普授評的煤電發行人而言,2022年將是進行休整的一年。
標普表示,2021年煤炭短缺造成煤價高企,是中國所有煤電企業出現淨虧損的主要原因,受評實體煤電業務的平均燃料成本按年增加50%-70%,臨近2021年底時,多數省份允許電價上漲至高20%,適當抵銷了電廠的損失,但認為近期政府不太可能進一步提高電價上限,因此在煤價下跌之前獨立電廠盈利能力的上升空間有限。
標普指出,2021年燃煤發電佔比在79%-96%的大型獨立電廠的淨利潤降幅介乎79%-547%,預計受評大型獨立電廠2022年的經營性資金流利息覆蓋率將從2021年的0.9-2.8倍,回升至1.8-3.1倍。
標普預計,未來十年獨立電廠將著重擴大可再生能源產能,預計風力和光伏發電項目長期未決的電價補貼問題將在未來一到兩年內基本解決,預計2022-2023年間大型獨立電廠每年的資本支出將較2020年的水平增長40%-55%。
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