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《大行報告》中金:汽車供應鏈緊缺成本上升 料汽車及零部件行業短期利潤承壓
中金髮表報告指出,本輪疫情持續時間較長,將對內地整車產銷和供應鏈環節產生一定影響,第一是涉疫地區車企生產停滯,交通出行和工人到崗受到影響,預計產能恢復尚需4月中旬後;第二是上遊供應鏈間接影響,江蘇等周邊地區零部件廠商生產和交付延遲,導致車企生產受限。 該行初步測算,當前上汽(600104.SH)、一汽、特斯拉(TSLA.US)在上海、吉林的受影響產能佔比分別爲29%、45%和100%,預計本輪疫情將對部分車企和零部件公司3至4月份的營收和利潤形成一定壓力。長期基本面未受影響,具備良好供應鏈管理和持續降本能力的企業將具備更強韌性。 此外,該行認爲汽車供應鏈緊缺成本上升,估計汽車及零部件行業短期利潤承壓,但新能源滲透率增長和汽車智能化長期趨勢不改,相關零部件依舊具有長期投資機會。 中金建議關注頭部自主整車和新勢力車企,包括小鵬(09868.HK)、理想(02015.HK)、蔚來(09866.HK)、長城汽車(02333.HK)、長安(000625.SZ)及吉利(00175.HK);重卡濰柴動力H股(02338.HK)及A股(000338.SZ)、中國重汽H股(03808.HK)及A股(000951.SZ);經銷商中升控股(00881.HK)、美東汽車(01268.HK)(未覆蓋);二輪車雅迪控股(01585.HK)及愛瑪科技(603529.SH)等。
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