AT&T:股東們能期待什麼
美國電話電報公司(T)在過去的一段時間裏,由於合併的細節一直未被公開,使其股東經受了一番折磨。但實際上,這次的合併對AT&T來說是一筆很好的交易。
4月5日,美國電話電報公司(AT&T)的股東將獲得(免稅)每股AT&T持有的0.24股Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) 股份。
AT&T目前有71.6億股流通股。其中的0.24相當於17.1億股WBD股票。Discovery股東將看到他們的5.06億股已發行股票+優先股單位轉換爲6.95億股WBD股票。這樣你就能擁有71%的AT&T股份,29%的Discovery股份。
至於它們將如何定價,WBD潛在價格的最佳代表是Discovery (DISCA)。這是因爲這些股份將以1換1。因此,這意味着,無論Discovery以什麼價格交易(目前爲26.25美元),可以肯定的是,這大致相當於WBD剝離後的價格。
要想知道AT&T將如何被重新評估,我們所要做的就是將Discovery的股價乘以0.24。到今天爲止,一共是6.3美元。在此基礎上,我們用AT&T當前的股價(23.99美元)減去6.30美元。這讓我們對AT&T分拆後的估值爲17.69美元。
至於股息,我們知道AT&T每年將支付1.11美元的股息。這意味着6.27%的收益率,維持了AT&T在市場上股息支付最好的公司之一的地位。AT&T的股東將持有與收盤前相同數量的AT&T股票。
能從AT&T那裏期待什麼?
此次合併將對AT&T的股東大有裨益。AT&T將成爲一家更加專注於激光的公司。
自由現金流預計將在2022年達到160億美元,到2023年將飆升至200億美元。這在很大程度上要歸功於成本節約轉化爲積極的現金貢獻。到2023年底,AT&T的目標是節約60億美元。目前該銀行已有30億美元的存款,預計今年還有10億美元,2023年會有20億美元。營收將非常溫和,增長速度將很低,而資本支出將達到240億美元,其中50億美元將用於5G計劃。
總而言之,它看起來很不錯。更簡單、目標非常明確。隨着投資者瞭解他們的運作方式,應該會有更多的投資者將涌向AT&T,而不僅僅是爲了獲得豐厚的股息。
總結
最終,一切都會朝着有利於AT&T股東的方向發展。股息收益率可能會超過6%,這與股東們所習慣的水平相差不大,但仍是市場上最好的。AT&T將成爲一家專注於激光的公司,其推動力是成本節約,從而增加自由現金流。
但在合併落實之前,我們會看到股價有很大的波動。待一切塵埃落定,再考慮加入AT&T,否則先觀望。
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