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美聯黃建業稱若疫情好轉 今年樓價或升約5%
阿思達克 03-31 16:23
美聯集團主席黃建業表示,第五波疫情爆發,感染人數高企,加上俄烏戰爭、美國加息周期開始等利淡因素突襲,引致股市大調整,拖累整體香港經濟急轉彎。 他指,本港經濟第一季度無可避免將陷入收縮,打斷之前連續四個季度復甦的勢頭。樓市交投被冰封,特別是近月全新盤幾近「清零」,估計首季一手成交僅錄得約960宗,不但按季暴跌近8成,而且創自2013年一手銷售條例生效後,有紀錄以來的季度新低。二手因為「減價有成交」,表現雖然相對較佳,但是成交量估計亦僅約8,400宗,按季亦跌約2成半,創逾兩年新低水平。 不過,黃建業認為,一旦疫情好轉,累積購買力釋放,樓價大有機會「補裂口、追落後」。以全年計算,如果疫情受控,不出現第六波,估計樓價走勢與去年相反,呈「先跌後揚」,預期全年有力升約5%,升幅則與去年相若;成交料追落後,預計今年一手成交約1.7萬宗,與去年相若。二手成交量估計約5.5萬宗,按年則跌近1成。
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