《大行報告》高盛料本港2022至2025年樓價每年跌半成 下調地產股目標價
高盛發表報告指,過去數月由於宏觀放緩及美元匯率大幅上升等,香港地產行業面對進一步挑戰。該行現時預期香港長期住宅物業價格將走低,料今年至2025年樓價將每年下跌5%。因有關不利因素影響,本港地產股股價料會接近估值低谷,下調多隻地產股目標價(符另一表列)。分析師預測,HIBOR開始上升並影響借貸成本,料按揭利率由目前1.5%升至2024年接近4%見頂。
該行下調本港地產股目標價,認為股東回報仍是焦點,即可提供更高派息/股東回報的股份,因此看好長實集團(01113.HK),將該股列入「確信買入」名單,相信集團來自中港房地產的盈利/資產比例較低、股息增長相對較快及派息可靠度更高,且主要股東持股持續增加。
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