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《大行報告》中金料整體海外中資股去年盈利增長7.2% 上遊原材料、紡織服裝等增速居前
中金髮表報告指,目前維持對去年整個海外中資股盈利增長7.2%的預測,包括非金融板塊增長8.6%,金融板塊爲5.9%。同時將在全年業績披露完畢後,重新審視是否需要調整盈利預期。分行業看,上遊原材料、交通運輸、紡織服裝等增速居前,但互聯網、餐飲、媒體娛樂、線下消費等增速落後。 中金錶示,雖然去年海外中資股全年盈利從2020年疫情的影響中反彈,但修復主要集中在上半年。從下半年開始,內地經濟面臨的壓力上升,疊加內外部各種不確定性的擾動,盈利壓力逐漸增加,令MSCI中國盈利預期持續下調,亦反映市場對國內增長相對謹慎的預期。 中金指,去年底以來國內穩增長政策逐步發力、貨幣持續寬鬆、上遊價格邊際回落的背景下,預計盈利增長有望逐漸企穩回升。不過,企穩時間可能要取決於後續穩增長髮力的速度和力度,尤其是財政和房地產領域。 從板塊內部結構看,上遊價格回落或趨緩將緩解中下遊成本壓力並有助於中下遊消費板塊盈利修復。從年初以來的盈利一致預期調整變化來看,上遊(原材料、能源)板塊盈利上調幅度明顯放緩,下遊板塊盈利下調幅度也明顯收窄,半導體和醫療設備等上調幅度居前。不過,互聯網板塊的盈利前景可能還要綜合考慮監管政策的後續演變。
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