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菸草巨頭菲利普莫裏斯迎來抄底機會?
uSMART盈立智投 03-02 21:30

智通財經APP獲悉,在過去的幾天裏,在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之後,菸草巨頭菲利普莫裏斯(PM.US)股價下跌。截至發稿,該股已較高點下跌近10%。本文將就此次俄烏衝突可能對該公司業績產生的影響及何時買入該股進行分析。

俄烏衝突對菲利普莫裏斯業績影響幾何?

上週,菲利普莫裏斯宣佈暫停在烏克蘭的業務。據悉,烏克蘭佔菲利普莫裏斯捲菸和加熱菸草總出貨量的2%左右,佔菲利普莫裏斯總營收的2%以下。事實上,烏克蘭並不是菲利普莫裏斯的主要銷售市場,但俄羅斯就不一樣了。

據下圖所示,俄羅斯在2021年的捲菸出貨量中佔該公司總出貨量的8.4%,在加熱菸草中佔17.1%以上。對菲利普莫裏斯來說,這使得俄羅斯成爲僅次於印度尼西亞的第二大重要銷售國。

由於衝突是上週纔開始的,因此市場或許無法立即從管理層那裏得到關於整體影響的最新消息。但因衝突升級可能對俄羅斯經濟的發展產生重大影響,進而影響當地的香菸需求。除了降低收入增長的可能性之外,自第四季度財報發佈以來,俄羅斯盧布兌美元匯率已經下跌了36%以上,這也增加了收入增長的阻力。

但對於菲利普莫裏斯這樣的公司來說,投資者關心的不僅僅是收入和收益。多年來,股票回購和股息等資本回報使該公司成爲投資者的寵兒。正如過去十年的大部分時間裏所看到的,美元走強將對自由現金流產生重大影響,今年的自由現金流原本預計爲100億美元。即使最終只損失了幾億美元,但用於股息支付、股票回購和償還債務等的資金也會減少。

何時買入該股?

那麼,投資者如何確定買入該股的良機呢?如果你是一個長期投資者,計算該股的年收益率將是一個很好的開始。據悉,菲利普莫裏斯目前的季度股息爲1.25美元,按照去年的每季度漲息5美分的幅度,預計季度股息將漲至1.30美元。

因此,在未來12個月,該公司預計將支付總股息5.10美元。而目前,美國10年期國債收益率爲1.858%,考慮到美聯儲允許通脹率高於其2.0%的目標,我們將長期通脹率設定在2.5%。因此得出菲利普莫裏斯的目標收益率將是5.358%,對應該股股價95.18美元。

總結

在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之後,菲利普莫裏斯的股價受到了打擊。雖然該公司已經關閉了在戰區的工廠,但更大的影響可能來自俄羅斯,俄羅斯是該公司的第二大銷售國家。如果美元繼續走強,該公司預計將下調第一季度業績報告,尤其是在收益方面。好消息是,該公司的長期前景仍然相當健康,因此,對於有意買入該股的投資者,可以考慮當股價達到95.18美元時入手該股。

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