俄烏衝突,美聯儲加息會否有變?
機構認爲,地緣衝突難改3月美聯儲開啓加息,相較一次性加息50BP的激進預期,對於美聯儲而言首次加息25BP或許是權宜之計。
來源:靳毅投資思考
本輪俄烏衝突對美國的影響體現在兩大層面:
經濟層面上,由於俄美貿易依賴程度較低,美國受到的經濟直接衝擊相對可控,未來更多可能反映在以輸入通脹爲代表的間接衝擊上;
金融層面面上,中短期風險偏好的下降可能是一個相對確定的事件。
我們對此的觀點是:
(1)由於本輪俄烏衝突對美國經濟的直接影響有限,因此,3月份美聯儲很難因此而停止開啓加息的步;
(2)從目前俄美歐的表態來看,初步制裁不涉及能源,能源方面還沒有出現明顯的供給下降因素,短期內,對美國通脹的壓力相對溫和。與此同時,歷史上美聯儲從來沒有在第一次加息中選擇直接提高50BP,並且本輪美聯儲加息屬於「逆週期緊縮」,有防止「硬着陸」的訴求,我們傾向認爲美聯儲第一次加息會稍顯謹慎。大概率只加息25BP。

就美債利率而言,目前的利率水平可能已接近階段高位,主要原因有三:①歷史上來看,10年期美債利率中長期頂點與聯邦基金利率階段頂點水平相當;②歷輪加息週期開啓前,美債利率的階段性上行就已經基本到位;③「五因子」模型顯示,今年年中美債利率高點或將在2.30%左右。
結合美股來看,本次「俄烏衝突」後美股出現一定程度的回調,導致估值下降,使得目前美股「風險溢價」更顯從容,也將「鈍化」未來美債利率繼續上行對股市的「擠壓」。
風險提示:俄烏衝突升級,美聯儲超預期寬鬆,新冠疫情傳播超預期。
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