俄烏局勢引全球巨震,港股調整後怎麼走?
方正證券認爲短期港股將會呈現震盪行情,3月中旬多個重大不確定性落地後行情有望走穩回暖。
近日,港股出現一定幅度的調整。我們認爲有多重因素造成此次調整:
(1)國際地緣政治:過去一週,烏克蘭局勢不斷惡化。此前俄烏雙方雖有摩擦,但是市場可能傾向於雙方將以談判方式解決問題。但是隨着俄羅斯在當地時間2月21日晚突然承認烏克蘭東部兩地區獨立,超出市場預期,風險偏好下降,今日港股出現下跌。此前我們覆盤俄羅斯-格魯吉亞戰爭,發現俄羅斯對外衝突期間俄羅斯RTS指數相對其他指數而言跌幅更大。
(2)互聯網巨頭相關的三個行業事件:第一,2月18日,國家發改委等發佈《關於促進服務業領域困難行業恢復發展的若幹政策》,其中「引導外賣等互聯網平臺企業進一步下調餐飲業商戶服務費標準,降低相關餐飲企業經營成本」引發美團股價下跌約15%;第二,媒體報道一遊戲公司負責人稱「今年國內不發(遊戲)版號」,此言論雖然未經官方證實,但是造成市場恐慌,引發以騰訊爲龍頭的遊戲股下跌;第三,此前騰訊、字節跳動等企業申請「元宇宙」商標均被駁回,也對互聯網板塊不利。
對於烏克蘭局勢,我們認爲俄羅斯雖然會忌憚制裁,但不能排除俄羅斯擁有承受制裁的制衡之策,大國博弈十分複雜,其走向充滿了不確定性。關於烏克蘭局勢對股市的影響,我們認爲突發不確定性的影響已部分反映在市場中,後續一些預期內的事件反而不會對股市造成意外的大幅波動。但是烏克蘭事件最終拖延到何時結束、最後的博弈結果如何,仍然充滿了未知。對於互聯網行業,我們認爲市場在缺乏明確信息的情況下股價明顯調整,反映出在經歷去年的行業反壟斷之後投資者情緒較爲脆弱,而美國加息預期以及烏克蘭局勢緊張加劇了這種脆弱情緒,未來市場將逐漸迴歸基本面。
本文認爲短期港股將會呈現震盪行情,3月中旬多個重大不確定性落地後行情有望走穩回暖。主要原因系:
(1)兩會預計3月4-5號陸續召開,預計中旬結束,更多穩增長政策可能落地,有利於股市回升。
(2)目前內地貨幣政策方面市場仍存一定的降息預期,3月中旬MLF、LPR利率披露後,市場將判斷內地寬貨幣是否進入尾聲。
(3)美聯儲議息會議將在當地時間3月15-16日召開,市場加息預期充分,但加息力度的預期波動較大。2月15日,市場預測3月份美聯儲加息50BP的概率爲57.9%,但是根據2月22日數據,3月份加息50BP的概率跌落至17.2%,加息25BP的概率上升至82.8%。
除了這三件大事,投資者仍需注意的一點是,如果A股未來的春季行情出現結束休整,可能不利於港股上漲。
風險提示:內地穩增長政策或效果不及預期;美聯儲加息幅度超預期;A股波動超預期;全球新冠疫情衝擊超預期。
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