美聯:本港私宅施工需時短期供應難大增 估計今年推盤量約1.8萬伙
運房局公布最新「私人住宅一手市場供應」資料,去年第四季私人住宅施工量達1.41萬個,較第三季僅700個按季大升約19倍,創該報告的紀錄季度新高。
美聯物業首席分析師劉嘉輝相信受疫情影響下,去年首三季施工量合共只有7,200伙,創十二年同期新低;而第四季施工量提速至1.41萬伙,只不過是追回首三季施工落後進度。雖然去年全年施工量最終升至2.13萬個的五年新高,但2017年至2020年的平均每年施工量約1.64萬伙左右,由於項目施工至落成需時,因此相信短期供應未會因去年施工量升至2.1萬伙而大幅增加,預期全年推盤量約1.8萬伙,與去年相若。
至於落成量方面,第四季錄3,200伙,按季升約45.5%,惟去年全年最終只有1.44萬伙,比起差估署全年落成量預測少約21%,即較去年原先預測落成量少約3,800個單位。雖然預期此批單位將順延於今年落成,但相信原先預測今年落成項目有部份亦有機會延遲到明年才落成,因此今年落成量有機會約2萬伙水平。
報告同時公布未來三至四年新供應數字,截至去年第四季,錄9.8萬個單位,按季增加4,000個,追平2017年第二季的紀錄高位,創四年半新高。相信因本財年賣地計劃達兩萬伙,比起全年目標1.29萬伙高出逾五成半,並創四年新高;然而,本財年賣地計劃得以超標,主要來自私人發展/重建項目類別。因此若然未來賣地計劃有不少私人發展/重建項目的話,未來三至四年新供應數字才能持續穩企高水平。
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