《大行報告》摩通:中石化(00386.HK)上季盈利略低於市場預期 評級「增持」
摩根大通發表研究報告指,中石化(00386.HK)日前發盈喜,預期按中國會計準則,去年第四季純利達到69億至130億元人民幣,符合與該行預測的約128億元人民幣,但略低於市場普遍預期的140億元人民幣,認為盈利表現按季下跌是由於常規年終減值、去年末四季庫存收益略有下降及化學品盈利料疲軟所拖累。
該行預計,中石化的化工業務於去年第四季及今年首季表現不佳,但相信市場已有所預期,估計自今年下半年起其利潤率將會改善,供需狀況亦將從2024年起改善。
摩通預期,中石化將維持派息比率於65%,即去年每股末期息料達到0.2至0.23元人民幣,年化收益率為12%至14%。該行預期,內地主要油企今年將繼續支付可觀的股息,並估計中石化的股息率將達到12%,高於中石油(00857.HK)的8%,並看齊中海油(00883.HK)的12%。
摩通對中石化H股維持「增持」評級,指出雖然與中海油及中石油相比,中石化的下游槓桿較高,但與油價走勢有正面關連,加上股息可觀,予目標價5.2元。
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