《大行報告》大和降明源雲(00909.HK)目標價至20元 評級「跑贏大市」
大和發表研究報告,指明源雲(00909.HK)下調2022年ERP及雲業務收入增長指引,預計ERP和雲產品的需求弱於預期趨勢將持續到今年上半年,但大和對公司長期收入增長軌跡仍保持樂觀態度,預期過去三個月股價已回調超過30%,部分負面消息已反映在股價表現上,相信現價水平可獲支持。
大和預計,明源雲2022年ERP業務收入將按年下降15%,數字化需求弱於預期,令2021年第四季ERP訂單減少。管理層指出,在宏觀經濟疲軟及訂閱式ERP客戶首年服務費大規模削減下,ERP收入料跌10%至20%。大和認爲ERP業務今明兩年無可避免要面臨增長壓力,並存在進一步下行風險。
雲業務方面,管理層將增長目標由逾50%,下調至介乎35%至45%,該行預期2022年雲收入將增長36%,並估計對雲業務新功能及PaaS服務的持續投資將影響2022至2023年的利潤率。
大和將明源雲2021至2023年收入預估削減5%至31%,由於收入增長放緩和研發費用增加,將期內盈利預測下調6%至31%,重申「跑贏大市」評級,但將目標價由30元下調至20元。
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