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惠譽博華料未來兩年內地商業銀行資本充足率續趨升
惠譽評級旗下惠譽博華髮表報告指出,去年以來中國政府和監管機構陸續發佈和執行多項關於商業銀行資本的支持和監管政策,包括髮行地方政府專項債補充商業銀行資本等。相關支持政策和監管新規的有效執行,有利於後疫情時代中國銀行業資本水平企穩上升,預計未來兩年商業銀行資本充足率和一級資本充足率保持上升趨勢,核心一級資本充足率有望企穩。 至於國有銀行資本快速上升趨勢在總損失吸收能力(TLAC)新規下或有所放緩,股份制及地方性銀行資本水平有望提高。 惠譽博華去年測算的「四大行」TLAC缺口按年明顯縮小,未來非資本債務工具的發行有利於「四大行」總損失吸收能力按期達標。首批公佈的系統重要性銀行(D-SIB)資本水平存在明顯差異,更高的資本要求將推動D-SIBs整體資本水平的提高。中小銀行發行資本工具的勢頭保持上升趨勢,疊加各地地方政府支持中小銀行發展專項債完成發行額度,中小銀行資本水平未來也有望穩中向好。 綜合以上,惠譽博華認爲銀行業資本充足率指標有望企穩上升。但另一方面,由於資產質量不確定仍存,對資本的影響仍需關注。
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