《大行報告》中信證券:中概監管主要針對個別產業 而非打擊全部VIE架構企業
中信證券發表報告表示,12月2日,美國證監會(SEC)通過《外國公司擔責法》修正案細則,2022年至2024年間無法被PCAOB(美公開公司會計監督委員會)審查會計底稿的中資企業或將強制在美退市(預計在2025年)。疊加近期滴滴(DIDI.US)宣稱將在美退市並選擇回港上市,國內外監管共趨嚴格,再次導致市場情緒承壓。
該行指,雖然內地監管加碼,但港交所(00388.HK)近期優化海外發行人上市制度,放寬二次上市及雙重主要上市條件限制,爲將在美強制退市的中資企業提供了「保護方案」。該行認爲美國相關法案對於有(或將有)條件回港上市的企業影響較小,而愈發開放的港股市場也將承接更多具備稀缺性中資企業的迴歸。
中信證券指,中概監管趨嚴由來已久,但國內監管加碼主要針對個別產業,而非打擊全部VIE架構企業。近年來中美摩擦日益加深的背景下,美方對中概股信息披露要求愈發嚴格。早在2018年底,美國證券交易委員會就曾聯合PCAOB針對中概股發佈公告,導致中國企業在美融資時遭遇更多風險定價補償要求。2020年12月,HFCAA獲總統簽署通過。而本次法案細則經SEC確認落地,預示着美國監管機構將有權利啓動強制退市權限。在國內外對中概股信息披露要求存在矛盾的情況下,美股中概退市已「箭在弦上」。另一方面,國內反壟斷等政策趨嚴也早有體現。但國內監管加碼主要集中在產業問題上,並非針對全部VIE架構企業。不存在產業政策風險的VIE架構企業或由於投資者的過度恐慌而被「錯殺」。
該行表示,美國相關法案預計對有條件回港上市的企業影響較小,愈發開放的港股市場將承接更多稀缺標的迴歸。經測算,當前符合優化後的港交所二次上市條件的美股中資企業多達77家,較此前多出43家,市值約2.4萬億港元。且在新制度下,不乏如每日優鮮(MF.US)、老虎證券(TIGR.US)等細分賽道龍頭將有機會回港上市。而對於這些有條件回港上市的企業來說,由於持有美股的投資者可以轉股到港股市場,因此預計在美退市對其影響相對較小。而愈發包容開放的港股市場將承接更多具備稀缺性中資企業的迴歸,融資平臺的地位不斷提升。
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