渣打料中國房地產信貸條件或觸底回升
渣打發表報告指,中國房地產信貸條件或將觸底回升,預計明年房地產貸款增長將溫和回升,融資環境改善有望緩解房地產投資對經濟的拖累,但房企表現將呈現分化。
報告預計,中國未來幾個季房地產行業信貸環境將逐步改善。第三季房地產貸款按年增速大幅下滑至約5%,佔全部新增貸款比重降至約15%。參照歷史經驗來看,預計房地產貸款增速進一步下行空間有限。今年9月以來,金融監管部門開始鼓勵銀行業金融機構加快個人住房貸款審批進度,加大對優質房企貸款發放力度,釋放出樓市政策邊際放鬆的信號。
報告指,按照房地產貸款集中度管理制度的指標,測算房地產貸款佔各項新增貸款比重的適宜區間在25%至30%之間。假設到2022年中,新增房地產貸款佔比達到25%,該行預計2022年底房地產貸款增長將加速至10%左右。房企其他融資管道亦顯露出放鬆跡象,考慮到房企到位資金與房地產開發投資之間的密切相關關係,融資環境改善應有助於2022年一季度後房地產投資企穩。
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