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《大行報告》摩通升銀娛評級至「增持」 上調金沙、永利及新濠國際至「中性」 調整濠賭股目標價
摩根大通發表研究報告,指澳門博彩股目前估值相當於預測2023年企業價值對EBITDA約9倍,相信已反映賭牌續牌較悲觀情境,料進一步下行風險有限,不過同時難以有很大上升空間,因在內地清零政策下,目前賭業復甦緩慢,續牌問題亦壓抑市場對濠賭股盈利及估值預測。因此,該行避免對行業採進取看法,大致採較「中性」的立場。 該行輕微調整濠賭股目標價平均約4%(詳見另表),上調最喜好賭業股銀河娛樂(00027.HK)評級由「中性」上調至「增持」,並上調金沙中國(01928.HK)、永利澳門(01128.HK)及新濠國際發展(00200.HK)評級由「減持」上調至「中性」。行業喜好次序依次爲銀娛,然後金沙、永利(平排),隨後爲澳博(00880.HK)、新濠及美高梅中國(02282.HK)(平排)。 摩通指出,不擔心賭牌續牌會有劇烈變化(如有博企失去牌照或加稅),但相信對賭客花費、行業回報、經營者派息能力都有潛在影響,且目前仍未能預測該等影響之深度,相信投資者可等待行業可見度改善,以爭取更持續性及更佳回報。 報告表示,現時難以分析或判斷行業估值是否便宜,因盈利及估值不確定性難以分割。如果假設EBITDA恢復至2019年疫情前水平,則市場對濠賭股定價較歷史水平有25%至35%的折讓。實際上,以估值倍數及EBITDA計,市場對濠賭股已有10%至20%估值折扣,該行認爲屬合理。
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