《大行報告》中信證券:人行保障合理住房金融需求意圖明顯 料內房明年3月銷情開始向上
中信證券發表報告表示,預計今年11月後按揭貸款投放持續增長,銷售回款情況明顯好轉。整個市場的銷售情勢可能在2022年3月開始向上。該行指,唯信用修復預計仍曠日持久,開發企業盈利能力很難恢復。開發搭臺,服務唱戲,建議投資者重點關注不動產運營和服務的投資機遇。
就人行發佈今年10月個人住房貸款統計數據,2021年10月末,個人住房貸款餘額37.7萬億人民幣,當月增加3,481億人民幣,較9月多增1,013億人民幣。10月以來按揭投放明顯好於三季度,且人行特意單獨發佈了此一數據,保障合理住房金融需求的意圖明顯。該行相信,內地金融體系的執行力比較強,落實政策比較快,且防止金融風險外溢和保證消費者權益的確都和住房貸款密切相關。個人住房貸款的加速投放,是整個行業逆週期調節政策選項中副作用最小,合理性最強,見效也最快的工具。
中信證券預計,內房銷售在2022年一季度恢復,產業重心繼續向運營服務演變。該行指和每一輪週期相似,政策依然重視及時託底需求,避免金融風險蔓延,避免市場「硬着陸」,開發企業集中度也會進一步提升。
該行稱,和每一輪週期不同,這種託底政策很難最終提升新房價格(處置資產需求加限價存在),開發總量難以進一步擴大,開發商盈利能力難以明顯反彈。該行堅信,市場最大的機遇是在運營和服務的機遇,重點推薦貝殼(BEKE.US)、碧桂園服務(06098.HK)、融創服務(01516.HK)、旭輝永升服務(01995.HK)、華潤萬像生活(01209.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、金科服務(09666.HK)、新城悅服務(01755.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK)。開發板塊中市佔率提升,盈利能力真實穩定的企業也值得推薦,包括龍湖集團(00960.HK)、保利發展(600048.SH)、萬科A(000002.SZ)和金地集團(600383.SH)等。(w/u)
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