國泰君安：行業全面虧損，危機中孕育機會
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：鍾凱鋒、王豔君等
投資建議：看好四季度週期反轉預期提升帶來的估值修復機會，堅定佈局生豬養殖板塊貝塔機會，推薦牧原股份、溫氏股份、 正邦科技、天邦股份、新希望等，受益標的傲農生物等。
2021Q3單季度首次全面虧損，虧損幅度超預期，盈利能力繼續分化。Q3全國22省市生豬平均價格爲14.83元/公斤，主要生豬養殖上市公司在Q3進入全面深度虧損階段。前三季度，行業虧損幅度超此前預期，且遠高於過去任何一輪豬週期，虧損超預期有望帶來週期反轉時間更加提前。成本變化帶來盈利能力大幅分化，從上一輪週期的底部到這一輪週期的底部，非瘟疫情使行業成本和盈利能力的方差變大，ROE在不同公司的分化拉大。
產能擴張按下暫停鍵，資金壓力開始顯現。由於主動去產能導致的能繁母豬Q3同時環比持平或下降尚屬首次，產能增長按下暫停鍵。從2017年至今，2021Q3是歷史上首次主動淘汰和優化產能造成的產能同時轉負或持平，且部分公司的優化和淘汰幅度創歷史最高水平，意味着行業大幅淘汰產能的開始。同時，三季報可以看到資金壓力逐漸凸顯，但嚴重債務危機無須擔心。2021Q3資產負債率上升，綜合貨幣資金、現金及現金等價物餘額和存貨來看，各公司可快速變現資產較多，即使遇到債務危機，加快育肥豬銷售進度也可短期內快速回流現金，可變現能力較強。
Q3基金持倉：市場關注度在提升，持倉比例環比增高。除部分公司外，2021Q3養殖公司進入前10大重倉股的基金數增多，持股數量增加。整體來看，Q3養殖股的關注度相對於Q2有普遍提升，而個股選擇有分化，在生豬養殖板塊前2大重倉股爲牧原股份和溫氏股份，其中重倉牧原股份的基金數在2021Q3遠高於其他公司，其持股數量大幅領先其他公司。
風險提示：疫情風險、禽畜價格波動風險、原材料價格波動風險、生物資產減值風險、償債風險受益。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
