一文綜合大行對渣打(02888.HK)於公布季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
渣打集團(02888.HK)今早股價受壓,盤中曾低見48.8元一度下滑5.3%。瑞銀指渣打第三季業績大致符合預期,集團對今年營運指引大致保持不變符合預期,料其今年股價不會有吸引表現,因公司聚焦提高運營槓桿以迎接全球潛在加息周期。中金指渣打上季息差仍在收窄,成本端持續承壓,料明年將進一步面臨薪酬成本上漲及科技投入帶來的壓力。
渣打集團昨(2日)中午公布今年第三季除稅前基本溢利按年升44%至10.75億美元;除稅前法定溢利按年升1.29倍至9.96億美元。每股基本盈利23.1美仙。
按法定計,渣打第三季純利按年升3.95倍至7.63億美元。收入按年升7%至38億美元;亞洲續成為集團溢利貢獻最多地區,除稅前基本溢利按年升13%。第三季經調整淨利息收入按年升7%至17.32億美元,經調整淨息差維持於1.23%。渣打季度信貸減值1.07億美元,按年減少2.46億美元;按季升1.74億美元。截至9月底止普通股權一級資本比率按年升20個基點至14.6%。
渣打財務總監賀方德指集團淨利息收入增長料在明年持續,又指淨息差已非常接近見底,明年或輕微上升,視乎政策利率上升步伐。該行希望息差環境明年後改善,加上經濟和通脹預測改善,認為明年收入重返增長率5%至7%指引水平屬合理預期。另外,集團將繼續特別謹慎監察在航空、金屬與採礦及石油與天然氣行業的風險敞口,以及對商業房地產的風險敞口。
【提高運營槓桿 憂薪酬成本漲】
中金下調對渣打目標價,由75元降至59.54元。該行指渣打季度營業費用按年升5%,受薪酬成本上漲、匯率變動及科技投入因素影響,預期明年全年營收增速仍將低於費用增速,將進一步面臨薪酬成本上漲及科技投入帶來的壓力。另外,渣打季度減值1.07億美元,其他歐美銀行卻在大幅回撥,反映資產質量拖累渣打盈利,其在新興市場的風險敞口仍須關注。
美銀證券維持對渣打「買入」投資評級及目標價58元。該行指渣打季度稅前溢利勝市場預期,主要因為收入較預期高1億美元,但現季度收入指引推動該行下調對渣打全年收入預測,成本則符合預期,但撥備稿高於預期。該行亦指,渣打今年首三季應計派息為每股16美仙,基於普通股權一級資本比率達14.6%,上調對渣打全年派息預測至每股14美仙。該行又指渣打重申明年起每年收入增長目標5%至7%,認為只是溫和地基於渣打對利率的敏感程度。
摩根大通維持對渣打「增持」評級及目標價68元。該行指渣打撥備前經營溢利表現強勁。該行預期渣打第四季公布股份回購,且仍可能收購花旗亞洲資產。縱使基於管理層僅重申今年成本及收入指引,致今年業績預期改動有限,但料其2023年業績預測在利率上升下仍有上望空間,基於渣打盈利與利率上升有正面關係,美國及香港利率假設上調。
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本網最新綜合8間券商對其投資評級及目標價:。
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
摩根大通│增持│68元
高盛│買入│66元
中金│中性│75元->59.54元
美銀證券│買入│58元
瑞銀│中性│54.3元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│52元
花旗│中性│52元
瑞信│中性│50.91元(480便士)
券商│觀點
摩根大通│季績符預期,利率上升下增長展望改善
高盛│業績符預期
中金│成本端持續承壓,信用減值環比增加
美銀證券│關注明年增長
瑞銀│業績符預期,焦點在提高經營槓桿
摩根士丹利│管理層維持今年成本及收入指
花旗│收入勝預期,撥備低於預期,實際稅前溢利符預期
瑞信│經調整實際稅前溢利符預期,資本狀況改善
(fc/w)
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