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中金:全球電動突破臨界,明年有望千萬銷量

來源:中金

全球新能源汽車銷量與滲透率加速提升,根據S型增長曲線經驗,及最新產業鏈指引,我們預計2022年電動車銷量有望突破1000萬輛,產業鏈測算基礎將重新修改,長期投資框架將重新構建。

摘要

範式轉換,新能源汽車滲透率進入陡峭增長期。2021年來,全球新能源汽車銷量與滲透率加速提升: 2021前九月,中國、歐洲八國、美國新能源銷量分別爲214/131/43萬輛,同比分別+193%/105%/101%。九月中國、歐洲八國、美國的新能源滲透率分別達到17.3%/24.3%/5.3%,同比分別+11.9ppt/14.3ppt/2.8ppt。我們認爲,新能源汽車行業快速增長來自政策端支持、供給端優質車型上市、需求端消費特徵轉向的共振。根據S型增長曲線的經驗,我們判斷全球汽車電動化已突破臨界點,或進入陡峭增長期。

2022年全球新能源汽車劍指千萬銷量。往前看,芯片擔憂已漸行漸遠,新能源汽車供給緩解的預期形成,後續產業趨勢加速向上。自上而下,我們預計,2022年中國/歐洲/美國新能源滲透率分別達到約20%/25%/12%,對應銷量分別達到500/300/200萬輛,同比增速分別約50%/50%/150%,全球合計銷量劍指千萬,同比增速達70%。

產業歷史性變革,帶來全產業鏈投資機遇。自下而上,頭部智能電動車企領跑行業,其中特斯拉前九月全球累計銷量62.7萬輛,同比+97%;蔚來、理想汽車、小鵬汽車銷量分別達到6.6、5.6、5.5萬輛,同比分別大幅增長152%、294%、195%。近期,小鵬等車企持續發佈智能駕駛新科技,特斯拉則再次交出優質財報並宣佈全球漲價,全球汽車科技新格局陸續清晰,頭部車企優勢顯現。同時,根據前述預測,我們認爲動力電池及上遊材料、鋰電設備等新能源汽車全產業鏈企業將持續展現投資機遇。

投資建議上,我們看好頭部新能源整車企業,和在電動智能化中領先的零部件企業,包括特斯拉產業鏈、電驅動產業鏈等。看好鋰電和四大材料,以及上遊原材料。鋰電設備環節,建議關注細分賽道優質企業:對於電池電芯良率影響關鍵的中後道製程設備廠商;推薦與電池裝機量同步增長的結構件廠商,關注目前自動化率仍低,當前需求增長加速的模派段自動化設備廠商。

風險

行業芯片短缺超預期;新車型推出進度不及預期。

圖表:中國新能源滲透率有望進入S型增長曲線

  資料來源:IDC、Bloomberg、Marklines、中汽協,中國新能源滲透率爲中金研究部預測,其餘國家均爲當年的新能源滲透率,全球智能手機滲透率採用IDC預測

圖表:中國的新能源車企交付量持續邁上新臺階

  資料來源:乘聯會,中金公司研究部

圖表:美國新能源汽車銷量與滲透率

  資料來源:MarkLines Data Center,中金公司研究部

圖表:歐洲八國新能源汽車銷量與滲透率

  資料來源:Marklines,中金公司研究部

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