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中信:碳中和“1+N”頂層設計出臺,3060路徑更加明晰
uSMART盈立智投 10-26 16:42

2021年10月24日,中辦國辦印發《關於完整準確全面貫徹新發展理念做好碳達峯碳中和工作的意見》。該文件是碳達峯碳中和“1+N”頂層設計文件中的“1”,對2025、2030和2060年的指標進行了更多的明確,後續配套文件將陸續出臺。具體來看包括三個方面:

1)短期:高耗能產業碳達峯路線圖將陸續出臺,兩高行業或限產先行;

2)長期:構建低碳能源體系,煤炭、石油等傳統能源與光伏、風電等清潔能源將此消彼長;

3)配套:完善電價機制,推動碳交易市場發展。

▍碳達峯碳中和頂層設計文件出臺,後續3060目標實現路徑更加明晰

2021年10月24日,《關於完整準確全面貫徹新發展理念做好碳達峯碳中和工作的意見》印發。作爲碳達峯碳中和“1+N”頂層設計文件中的“1”,本次文件對於2025年、2030年和2060年的定量指標有了更加明確的表述,包括單位GDP能耗、單位GDP碳排放、非化石能源消費比重等,不過大部分指標此前已有相應的官方表述,本次文件更多在於將全國碳達峯路徑進一步明晰。碳達峯的實現離不開對高耗能產業的合理有序限制和清潔能源的廣泛使用,此外配套的價格發現機制包括電價機制、碳交易機制等也需進一步完善。

短期:高耗能產業碳達峯路線圖將陸續出臺,兩高行業或限產先行

2020年我國碳排放規模約100億噸,除火電外,鋼鐵(21.2億噸)、水泥(21.4億噸)和電解鋁(4.5億噸)等碳排放較高。相關行業未來需降低碳排放以助力碳中和,但短期看技術工藝的提升空間有限,未來或將限產先行。文件強調“制定能源、鋼鐵、有色金屬、石化化工、建材、交通、建築等行業和領域碳達峯實施方案”,預計後續各行業達峯方案陸續出臺。此外,文件強調“新建、擴建鋼鐵、水泥、平板玻璃、電解鋁等高耗能高排放項目嚴格落實產能等量或減量置換,出臺煤電、石化、煤化工等產能控制政策”,兩高行業或將限產先行。

▍長期:構建低碳能源體系,煤炭、石油等傳統能源與光伏、風電等清潔能源將此消彼長

碳達峯碳中和的實現離不開清潔能源的發展,2020年我國非化石能源消費佔比15.9%,文件規劃2025年達到20%、2030年達到25%、2060年達到80%以上,未來以光伏、風電爲代表的清潔能源佔比有望快速上升。與此同時,考慮到目前傳統化石能源尤其是煤電仍是我國能源的支柱,短期內經濟平穩發展仍離不開傳統能源的支持,文件亦強調“強化風險管控,確保能源安全穩定供應和平穩過渡”,因此傳統能源的壓降預計將循序漸進。

配套:完善電價機制,推動碳交易市場發展

3060目標的實現除了需要政府進行規範引導,還需要市場化機制的逐步完善,包括電價機制、碳交易機制等。文件強調“完善電力等能源品種價格市場化形成機制。從有利於節能的角度深化電價改革,理順輸配電價結構,全面放開競爭性環節電價”,未來電價機制有望進一步完善。此外,全國碳交易市場已經啓動,我們預計年內碳價中樞約爲50元/噸,對應碳市場總市值約爲2800億元。未來數年內,預計全國碳市場價格將溫和上漲,行業擴容、碳期貨、引入機構和個人投資者、實施配額拍賣等制度改革值得關注。

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