《大行報告》麥格理恢復覆蓋平安(02318.HK)予「跑輸大市」評級 目標價50元
麥格理發表研究報告,指中國平安(02318.HK)估值近歷史低位,市場一致對該股予「買入」看法,該行恢復對平安的覆蓋,但予「跑輸大市」評級,目標價50元。
該行認為市場對平安未來三年新業務價值(NBV)及股本回報率看法過於樂觀。「共同富裕」倡議帶來多重挑戰。由於NBV利潤率下降及投資回報下滑,中期而言該行料平安續獲向下估值重評。即使以股價對內涵價值計公司估值吸引,以敏感度分析計該股有潛在下行。
麥格理表示,平安新業務價值料再度收縮。由於私人醫保需求下降,料定期支付產品對首年保費收入佔比由2020年的57%收縮至2023年的50%。由於持續產品組合改變趨向低利潤率儲蓄產品,料NBV利潤率將由2020年的38.9%降至2021年的33.9%,2022年進一步降至30.7%。而明後兩年新業務價值料按年分別跌16%及11%。
該行相信平安是內地房地產敞口最大的保險商。即使對華夏幸福(600340.SH)66%敞口已撇賬,但平安對內房板塊敞口仍高達1,855億元人民幣,或旗下總管轄資產的4.9%。由於過去五年,平安因內房敞口帶來更高的淨投資回報率,該行料內房下行周期將損失投資回報,未來五年其淨投資回報將呈結構性下行。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.