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高盛:美股配置比例創歷史新高!明年將再創紀錄
高盛近日發佈報告稱,2021年,投資者對美股的配置比例已超過互聯網泡沫時期水平,達到創紀錄的52%。並認爲,由於低利率環境以及現金儲備的不斷增加,這一比例將在明年繼續上揚。
美國28萬億美元的現金資產中,美國家庭持有比例達到一半,即14萬億美元。目前,利率水平處於歷史低位,加之缺乏有吸引力的固收產品,因此,如果投資者想要尋求更高投資回報率,將有更多現金會流入股市。
標準普爾500指數中,有57%的股票年化股息收益率高於投資級指數,這意味着,相較債券股票的收益率會更高,並且,股票還會有潛在的資本利得收益。
隨着股票回購活動和併購活動創下新高,企業可能成爲股票的最大需求方。高盛預計,明年企業將至少購買價值3500億美元的股票,而美國家庭與國外投資者對美股的需求將達到3000億美元。
儘管未來經濟增長、通脹上升和供應鏈中斷存在不確定性,但如果經濟增長預期上升、政策不確定性下降或消費者信心上升,股票配置仍會增加。
投資者和企業明年可能會通過共同基金和養老基金購買股票,這兩類基金的總銷售額可能將達到4,000億美元。
高盛認爲,隨着經濟朝着趨勢增長復甦,以及市場波動性降低,應該會支持資金流向被動型基金,而非主動型基金。並指出,目前的趨勢是被動型投資激增,而成本較高的主動型基金受到影響。
高盛對2022年股市需求的增長預估很大程度上取決於企業盈利增長。但美銀卻認爲,通脹上升和美聯儲政策轉變可能會對企業盈利預期造成不利影響;美銀分析師Subramanian 表示:“需求依然強勁,但通脹飆升帶來下行風險。分析師們預計四季度企業利潤率會收縮。”
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