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硬科技調整到位了嗎?Q4如何佈局?

來源:天風證券

天風證券覆盤了過去10年的一些硬科技賽道,在這些賽道產業趨勢向上的過程中,階段性調整的時間大多在30-50個交易日,指數調整幅度在15%-20%,個股可能在30%。因此,當前硬科技賽道調整的幅度普遍可能差不多了,但時間可能還不太夠。

但是如果站在11月,屆時市場消化了美債等外圍潛在風險以及較強的滯脹預期、並且開始像每年一樣展望轉年高景氣的方向,又疊加了這些硬科技賽道調整的時間足夠長了,那麼市場可能會迴歸到硬科技的主線中來。

此外,根據目前2022年的盈利預測情況,大部分硬科技賽道的增速都較2021年有所下降,那麼增速邊際下降,會否影響公司未來的超額收益?

下圖中,天風證券對此進行了詳細的數據回測:

扣非增速前1-3組,不管增速變化率如何,上升或下降,其股價收益率基本都能穩定在較高水平。即如果增速較去年下降,但今年仍然是全部A股中增速較快的,那麼其股價表現仍然不錯,比如增速從50%下降至 40%,變化率-20%,但其市場表現依然可以較好。(圖中紅色方框)

另外,天風證券認爲,每年Q4資金都會開始提前佈局預計轉年高景氣的方向,可能會延續高景氣賽道中的新能源、半導體、軍工;也可能是近年景氣度相對較差,但會在轉年出現較大變化的行業,如旅遊出行和傳統汽車等。

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