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《大行報告》大和估算平安(02318.HK)對內房行業實際敞口遠高於10% 目標價降至58元
阿思達克 09-27 12:00
大和發表研究報告,指該行近期提出內地金融系統結構風險及「硬著陸」風險或被過度炒作,但認為中國平安(02318.HK)面對的公司特定風險或仍被低估,評級「持有」,以分類加總估算法計,目標價由68元降至58元,以反映進一步投資減值預期及保費增長放緩;並下調平安2021至2023年盈測4%至12%,並降其稅後經營溢利預測。 報告稱,據該行估算,平安對內房行業的總敞口逾10%,遠高於公司所聲稱。該行提出,平安在不同情境下提出的1.7%或4.8%敞口,均遠低於經審視產品分層後,按最終基本資產所計算的總實際敞口。 大和稱,對內房行業總敞口,不限於實體物業,內房股票及債券,亦包括以不同形式出現的非標準資產,而核心資產與內房相關。大和表示,該等非標準資產以往被列為債權計劃、理財產品、永續債、非上市證券,以及官方披露下的長期股本投資。舉例,平安列出債權計劃佔其投資組合的4.8%,債權計劃當中約19%由內房企業直接發行,另19%來自非銀行金融機構及其他。該行稱,理解透過債權計劃的最重大非銀行金融機構借款人是信託公司,而其重大基本投資是物業。按平安官方披露對該等分類的敞口及大和所查詢,估算平安對內房行業的實際敞口遠高於10%。 報告表示,過往的高投資回報純粹是承擔高風險的結果。該行明白部分投資者欣賞平安歷史上高於同業的投資回報。比較過去十年全部8間上市同業的總投資回報,留意到平安總投資回報較同業均值高出6%,其標準差較同業高出25%。
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