《大行報告》大摩上調新地(00016.HK)目標價至139元 評級「增持」
大摩發表的研究報告指,本港住宅樓價今年以來表現強勁,主要受惠中小型項目表現,而新鴻基地產(00016.HK)入賬價值增長亦快於同業,其內地租戶銷售帶動了投資物業收益,估計2022財年每股派息或無增長,但認為股息率4.5厘亦屬吸引,將目標價由135元升至139元,評級「增持」。
該行指出公司管理層重申短期無回購計劃,主要因為需要強勁的資產負債表以維持信貸評級及收購土儲,又強調即使每股盈利下跌一年,每股派息亦會維持,不過派息比率仍然與核心盈利掛鉤而非投資物業溢利,主要因為開發物業及投資物業比例仍處各半的水平。
該行指出,其內地租戶銷售按年增長逾100%,增幅高於2019年水平,管理層指相關勢頭自7月以來亦持續。在香港寫字樓市場方面,IFC出租率為99%,而ICC出租率則為93%,由於ICC在2020財年有較大的續租調整,故今年未有受惠。
在開發物業方面,2022財年即使對通關看法持保守態度,公司目標銷售仍達450億元(2021財年銷售為230億元),留意到銷售主要是來自大眾化項目,儘管預計每年完工面積為260萬平方尺,該行估計收入及盈利有機會低於過去三年平均,而2022財年公司暫時銷售逾90億元。
在內地投資物業方面,公司指項目完工將帶來1,000萬平方尺、40億元的租金收入,但該行相信大部分盈利貢獻將在2025財年體現。該行將公司2022及2023財年的內地租金收入估算分別升10%及12%,相信可抵銷香港復甦較慢及酒店EBIT復甦期較長的影響,並加入對本港樓價的估算,目標價升3%。(el/k) ~
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