一文綜合大行於中石油(00857.HK)公布中期業績後最新目標價及觀點
中石油(00857.HK)今早股價靠穩,最新報3.16元升0.6%,券商指其派息慷概,確認公司對股東回報的承諾,但同時關注新冠變種病毒對行業需求的影響。該公司昨(26日)收市後公布中期業績,營業額按年升29%至11,966億元人民幣,虧轉盈賺530.37億元人民幣,上年同期蝕299.83億元人民幣;經營利潤884.63億元人民幣,去年同期虧損60.43億元人民幣。每股盈利0.29元人民幣,派每股中期息13.04分人民幣,上年同期派8.742分人民幣。上半年集團資本性支出按年跌1%至738.83億元人民幣,今年全年資本性支出預計為2,390億元人民幣。
中石油上半年集團原油產量按年跌7%至4.43億桶,可銷售天然氣產量按年升5%至22,585億立方英尺;油氣當量產量按年跌2%至8.2億桶。其中國內實現原油產量及可銷售天然氣產量分別按年升0.6%及7%,油氣當量產量按年升4%至7.35億桶。海外實現原油及可銷售天然氣產量各按年跌34%及21%,油氣當量產量按年跌31%至8,470萬桶,佔集團油氣當量產量10.3%。集團上半年銷售天然氣按年升12%,煉油與化工業務方面,上半年加工原油按年升7%,生產成品油按年升5%。上半年化工產品商品量按年升6%。
【指派息慷概 觀疫情影響】
瑞信指出,中石油今年第二季勘探及開採EBIT按季升四成,顯示公司在油價上升下的經營槓桿,亦為公司首次在成本紀律表現優於中海油(00883.HK)。該行又指,中石油業績符合預期,慷概派息(上半年派息比率45%)確認公司對股東回報的承諾,相信做法受市場歡迎,亦符合全球主要油企在本次業績季的趨向。該行維持對該股「跑贏大市」評級及5.7元目標價,相等於今年預測市盈率9倍及預測市賬率0.6倍,以及反映油價每桶70美元的假設。
摩根大通指,中石油今年次季經常性淨利潤接近盈喜預測範圍上限,今年中期純利530億元人民幣相等於市場預測全年盈利的69%。縱使次季進口天氣盈利能力及勘探與開採盈利略遜該行預期,但由破紀錄的非燃料經營溢利彌補,給予中石油「增持」評級,目標價4.7元。
匯豐環球研究表示,中石油中期盈利復甦受惠於能源價格上升、銷量增加及個別業務毛利率擴張。該行上調對中石油今明兩年盈利預測各20%及11%,反映上半年強勁表現,但下調對中石油H股的投資評級至「持有」,下調目標價由3.38元降至3.27元,該行縱使預期對公司今年盈利動力持正面看法,但見到新冠Delta變種的潛在風險,或限制能源需求復甦。
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本網最新綜合5間券商對其投資評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
瑞信│跑贏大市│5.7元
摩根大通│增持│4.7元
瑞銀│中性│3.9元
大和│跑贏大市│3.3元
匯豐環球研究│買入->持有│3.38元->3.27元
券商│觀點
瑞信│次季業績強勁,派息慷慨支持股價
摩根大通│年化派息率10厘,盈利恢復至2018年高位,股價有43%折讓
瑞銀│次季錄出售收益
大和│中期經常性淨利符合盈喜
匯豐環球研究│業績改善已於股價反映
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