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一文了解大行於恆安(01044.HK)公布中期業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
阿思達克 08-19 16:13
恆安國際(01044.HK)今日股價受壓,股價挫5.6%收41元,野村指市場出現較大營銷競爭,恆安或面對市場份額持續流失,估計未來銷售將繼續跑輸同業,而中金指其業績遜預期,料下半年基本面短期或仍承壓。恆安昨(18日)中午收市後公布中期業績,純利按年跌18%至18.6億元人民幣;每股盈利1.574元人民幣,派每股中期息1元人民幣,上年同期派1.2元人民幣。期內收入按年跌9%至99.74億元人民幣,其中紙巾業務銷售按年跌12%至46.97億元人民幣,衛生巾業務銷售按年跌6%至約30.3億元人民幣,紙尿褲業務銷售按年跌14%至約6.2億元人民幣。 公司指,由於紙巾企業均加大促銷優惠,加劇行業競爭及試圖搶佔疫情後帶來的機遇,集團亦需加大促銷以保持競爭力,紙巾毛利無可避免地受到影響,拖累期內整體毛利率由44.1%降至39.4%。展望下半年,公司指目前難以預測木漿價格走勢,高成本木漿預計下半年反映在紙巾成本上,預計木漿價格上升負面影響將於下半年反映,令下半年整體毛利水平持續受壓。 【憂競爭劇烈 市佔率流失】 花旗下調恆安投資評級,由「中性」降至「沽售」,目標價由55.1元降至37.2元。該行指,恆安中期純利跌18%令人意外,主要受銷售遜預期影響,所有業務收入均下降。期內毛利率收縮,主要受紙巾價格下跌及紙尿褲原料成本上漲,銷售、一般及行政開支與銷售比因減少品牌廣告及付運費較新冠疫情時降低而持平。該行下調恆安今年至2023年純利預測11%至18%,以反映收入減少及毛利率假設下調。 野村上調對恆安的投資評級,由「減持」上調至「中性」,認為現價水平較合理,目標價由47.6元下調至42.2元。該行指,恆安上半年衛生巾銷售額按年跌6%,主要因為國際品牌在中高端市場滲透率提升,市場出現較大營銷競爭,導致銷量下跌。該行預期市場競爭加劇,加上傳統銷售渠道表現疲弱,恆安或面對市場份額持續流失。對於紙巾業務期內銷售下跌12%,野村指出維達(03331.HK)同期銷售增長兩成,相信恆安表現較差是市場需求恢復理性,消費者更著重價格比較。估計恆安未來銷售將繼續跑輸同業,全年料跌8%。 -------------------------------------------------- 本網最新綜9間券商對其投資評級及目標價: 券商│投資評級│目標價(港元) 里昂│買入│68元 摩根士丹利│與大市同步│51元 傑富瑞│持有│56.3元->48.6元 摩根大通│中性│58元->48元 匯豐環球研究│持有│56.4元->48元 中金│中性│53元->48元 大和│持有│51.3元->46.5元 野村│減持->中性│47.6元->42.2元 花旗│中性->沽售│55.1元->37.2元 券商│觀點 里昂│中期收入及純利均遜該行預期 摩根士丹利│中期業績疲弱 傑富瑞│下調未來三年純利預測6%至7%,基於下調毛利率假設 摩根大通│中期銷售及盈利遜預期,料紙巾毛利率下半年承壓 匯豐環球研究│盈利遜預期,但回購提供下行緩衝 中金│業績低於預期,下半年基本面短期或仍承壓 大和│市場激烈競爭持續 野村│競爭加劇蠶食市佔 花旗│業績失望及展望轉差,下調評級至「沽售」
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