《業績預測》券商料工行(01398.HK)中期多賺逾6% 聚焦淨息差及資產質素
工商銀行(01398.HK)將於下周五(27日)公布今年中期業績,受惠於信貸成本下降、收入增長改善下,本網綜合6間券商預期,工行2021年上半年純利介乎1,537億元至1,638.61億人民幣,較2020年同期1,487.9億人民幣,按年上升3.3%至10.1%;中位數1,579.8億人民幣,按年升6.2%。
綜合5間券商預期,工行2021年上半年營業收入介乎4,144億元至4,221億人民幣,較2020年同期4,023.46億人民幣,按年上升3%至4.9%;中位數4,200億人民幣,按年升4.4%。摩根大通指在內地按揭貸款收緊、五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調,投資者將關注工行淨息差收窄的情況,並留意其資產質素趨勢,包括不良貸款率表現等。
【信貸成本降 留意淨息差】
美銀證券預測在一眾券商中最為樂觀,該行於本月初報告預測工行今年中期純利1,638.61億人民幣按年升10.1%、料總體營業收入按年升4.6%至4,210.14億人民幣、料淨利息收入3,338.16億人民幣按年升8.9%,料淨息差2.12厘按年收窄2個基點,淨手續費收入773.43億人民幣按年下滑13%。
摩根大通本月中發表報告,估計工行今年上半年按年多賺5.8%至1,574.52億人民幣、料收入按年升3%至4,144億人民幣。該行料工行今年第二季純利717.22億人民幣按年升8%(按季跌16%)、料總收入2,002.75億人民幣按年跌1%,估計第二季淨息差1.97%按年及按季均收窄17個基個點,成本收入比率24.6%按年升9個基點,料次季股本回報率為9.7%、不良貸款率按年跌7個基點至1.56厘。
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本網綜合6間券商預期,工行2021年上半年純利介乎1,537億元至1,638.61億人民幣,較2020年同期1,487.9億人民幣,按年上升3.3%至10.1%;中位數1,579.8億人民幣,按年升6.2%。
券商│2021年上半年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變動
美銀證券│1,638.61億元│+10.1%
瑞銀│1,615億元│+8.5%
里昂│1,585億元│+6.5%
摩根大通│1,574.52億元│+5.8%
中金│1,565億元│+5.2%
建銀國際│1,537億元│+3.3%
按工行2020年上半年純利1,487.9億人民幣計
綜合5間券商預期,工行2021年上半年營業收入介乎4,144億元至4,221億人民幣,較2020年同期4,023.46億人民幣,按年上升3%至4.9%;中位數4,200億人民幣,按年升4.4%。
券商│2021年上半年營業收入預測(人民幣)│按年變動
中金│4,221億元│+4.9%
美銀證券│4,210.14億元│+4.6%
建銀國際│4,200億元│+4.4%
瑞銀│4,196.5億元│+4.3%
摩根大通│4,144億元│+3%
按工行2020年上半年營業收入4,023.46億人民幣計
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