《大行報告》摩通料今年本港樓價有望升逾10% 地產股首選新地(00016.HK)
香港樓價創新高,摩根大通發表研究報告指,相信上行動力正放緩。該行相信潛在樓市控制措施的憂慮將消除,因月度樓價升幅少於1%,而交投量已於4月見頂;香港樓價升幅落後其他市場;在移民勢頭下政府避免過度對樓價施壓;以及現時缺乏外在動力推動樓價上升。政策未見不確定性下,該行料今年樓價升幅將超過該行原先10%的預測,受惠貨幣供應增長復甦。在地產股中該行首選新地(00016.HK),受惠於近期開售新盤及龐大土儲。
報告表示,該行過去憂慮樓價強勁升幅或招致政府干預以壓抑情緒。不過,隨著上升勢頭放緩,在推出新一輪收緊措施前,現時該行料政府將需要更多時間評估私樓市場。
摩通認為,即使中原城市領先指數(CCL)上周創新高,相信樓市氣氛不會如以往般被視為過熱。每月平均樓價升幅少於1%,歷史上,政府視連續兩個月每月樓價升幅2%或以上為過熱跡象。二手市場交投創六年高,但4月已見頂。該行相信二手市場情緒受控,買家正消化本年至今樓價升幅,而不是恐慌性追價。
報告稱,即使香港樓價屆歷史高位,但去年樓價疫後復甦表現跑輸新加坡、倫敦及美國。香港樓市上行受制約,過去18月人口淨流出屬原因之一。人口淨流動須考慮出入境、及學生留學、工人(包括外籍家庭傭工)等。實證證據顯示更多香港人移居海外,但因疫情嚴格隔離措施亦扭曲了正常工人流入,以及留學生出入境等。
報告進一步稱,香港樓價未因為出境移民增加而下跌,亦形容如果不是移民潮,樓價將會升得更高。該行相信政府在樓市上審慎,以避免過早「出招」或出手過猛導致樓市轉弱。過去12個月香港人口淨減少8.7萬人,淨流出料7.5萬人,或可能由於移民之外的原因。摩通稱,對人口減少不感憂慮,但相信政府將小心處理樓市,避免由人口減少帶來過度波動。事實上,樓價與人口變化的歷史關聯度頗低,認為樓價轉變更多由貨幣現象所帶動。
摩通稱,樓市沒有過度炒賣。過去18個月沒有任何跨境購買活動,亦不見雙倍印花稅(DSD)或買家印花稅(BSD)相關住宅成交顯著上升。政策未見不確定性下,報告料樓市將持續復甦,受惠貨幣供應逐漸增加及本地失業率趨穩定。該行認為,今年樓價有望升逾10%,或成為本地地產股的主要支持。
報告解釋,新地本年至今跑輸本地地產股同業,相信由於未達成6月底止年度合約銷售目標。不過天水圍Wetland Seasons Bay第1期快將發售,料項目強勁去化率將成為股價催化劑。
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