《大行報告》花旗下調中國平安(02318.HK)目標價至95元 評級「買入」
花旗發表報告,預計中國平安(02318.HK)壽險業務的不利因素將持續到今年第三季,第四季可能會出現良好增長,但鑒於基數較高,明年第一季增長仍可能面臨壓力。目標價由119元下調至95元,評級「買入」,以反映將2021財年的新業務價值預期下調至按年跌7%,並因投資收益減少而將2021、2022、2023財年的每股盈利預測分別削減3%、4%、1%。
花旗預計平安上半年在保費和利潤率收縮的拖累下,壽險業務新業務價值將按年下降12.5%,較該行所預計中國太保(02601.HK)按年跌5%和中國太平(00966.HK)按年跌7%的情況差,但就好過預計中國人壽(02628.HK)、新華保險(01336.HK)和人保壽險按年跌20%至25%。至於財產和意外傷害保險業務,該行預期其綜合成本率將改善2.2個點子至95.9%,因擔保和意外保險業務的承保盈利能力提高。然而,由於車險改革,車險業務綜合成本率預期將回升至97.5%。
在投資業務方面,花旗認為在今年第二季,平保將面臨所持華夏幸福(600340.SH)的股權有100億至150億元人民的減值風險及旗下陸金所(LU.US)可轉債按市值入帳公平值損失,預計集團稅後營運溢利按年增長將在上半年小幅放緩至中單位數水平。
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