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盈選報告 | 港股短期維持震盪行情,關注玻璃、快遞行業

市場策略

▍國泰君安國際稱,上週在科技、金融板塊前後上漲帶動下,港股回彈,三大指數均取得2%以上升幅。大市成交趨於穩定,南向資金上週淨流入,但未見顯著增量。港股在缺乏量能支持下,上升趨勢或較難維繼,維持港股短期震盪行情判斷。互聯網監管風波未平,雖科技股在上週出現超跌反彈行情,預計板塊在利空出盡前仍將持續波動。

海外方面,美國6月零售超預期,但消費者信心指數創新低,而7月通脹預期仍大幅走高。消息令市場憂慮經濟增長前景及居高不下的通脹,美股齊走低。外圍市場波動性持續增強,投資者仍需謹慎持倉,可關注科技股回調,中報業績盈喜的階段性行情。推薦低估值、中報業績有望改善的金融板塊;估值回調至合理區間的科技互聯網成長板塊;持續高景氣的光伏、鋰電、半導體、新能源車、生物科技板塊;以及醫療器械、疫苗等防疫概念股。

▍中信證券表示,交易與估值約束下,市場前期的極致分化將繼續收斂,市場風格再平衡,一方面,基本面預期好轉的傳統價值板塊龍頭會階段性修復;另一方面,高景氣成長板塊已從抱團階段進入輪動階段,近期重點關注軍工、CXO&醫療服務、雲計算、物聯網、化妝品&醫美的輪動機會;另外,對於三季度的主線新能源和半導體,建議把握後續波動帶來的入場時機。

熱點機會

▍玻璃行業:

華創證券表示,上週行業內共有39家玻璃企業發函上調產品價格,漲幅爲1-3元/重箱不等,且多家企業表示後續仍有調漲計劃。企業集體調價帶動玻璃市價提升,浮法玻璃價格繼續上漲,整體產銷良好。

另有分析師指出:“近3年來土地拍賣逐年走低和地產去槓桿的基本格局已經給玻璃未來需求蒙上陰影,從歷史經驗看,2022年或將是玻璃行業需求下滑的起點。當下的行業旺季或將是玻璃行業大牛市的最後旺季。”

▍快遞行業:

東北證券發佈研報指出,6月快遞行業需求量重回高位,增速環比回升至4月水平。據國家郵政局統計顯示,全國單月實現業務量97.41億件,同比增長30.4%,實現收入916.3億元,同比增長14.97%。

預計全年快遞業務量增速仍維持高水平,2021年全年業務量增速將維持在25%-30%,價格戰將持續但趨勢放緩;供給過剩仍爲主要矛盾,關注行業格局變化帶來的投資機會。

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