柏瑞投資:疫情下歐洲經濟仍在「追落後」 內地降準反映經濟增長風險或在下半年發生
柏瑞投資首席經濟師Markus Schomer出席記者會時表示,疫情對全球經濟仍有影響,近期歐洲、亞洲部分地區確診個案回升,但接種率提升或會帶來潛在上行。不過他認爲復甦勢頭在已發展地區較爲明顯,從PMI數據來看新興市場樂觀程度不及已發展市場。
他續指,由於去年經濟收縮較強勁,故從按年數據較難反映實際增長情況,假如將今年首季數據與2019年第四季比較的話,臺灣、香港等已超越疫情前水平,而歐元區、西班牙、英國等地則仍遠遜疫情前,認爲這些地區仍處追落後的狀態。他估計隨着疫苗接種率提升,歐洲市場應會盡快重拾表現,不過有機會要到2023年初才重返疫情前的水平,而這個情況亦反映了全球經濟復甦步伐不一致。
針對市場憂慮通脹的影響,他認爲相關問題主要影響美國,因爲當地刺激措施較多,但以歐元區爲例通脹則已自2%水平回落,中國通脹則低於2%,日本更是處通縮狀態,所以相信未來數年美國以外地區央行不會快速收回寬鬆的政策。在貨幣政策方面,他指出雖然量寬的主力已減退,但距離轉勢仍有很遠距離,料明年會較關注貨幣政策逐步收緊對增長前景及金融市場的影響。
在內地市場方面,他認爲人行宣佈降準反映經濟增長風險更多在第三季或下半年發生,而近月亦留意到內地經濟活動有減慢的情況,不預期即將公佈的內地第二季經濟數據會出現重大驚喜。(el/k) ~
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