中國動向(03818.HK):運動服飾業務扭虧為盈 投資收益大幅增厚利潤
FY21業績高於我們預期 公司公佈FY21業績:收入19.7億元,剝離日本Kappa業務後同比增長28%;歸母淨利潤18.1億元,同比增長394%,業績高於我們預期,主要因投資收益大幅增長至21.0億元。派息率約35%。 分渠道來看,FY21 Kappa品牌自營收入同比增長31%至10.3億元,貢獻 Kappa品牌收入的58%;加盟收入同比增長25%至7.5億元。截至2021年3月底,Kappa品牌共有門店1,170家,全年淨開41家,持續拓展購物中心和奧萊店鋪,其中自營、加盟店分別575家、595家,較財年初變動63家、-22家。管理層規劃未來繼續專注於店效提升,持續關閉低效店鋪。FY21,電商收入同比增長32%至3.7億元,佔收入的19%。為聚焦中國核心市場業務,加快國內業務增長,公司在2020年7月出售日本Kappa品牌商標,同時在2020年10月7日將Phenix品牌的特許使用權授予特許使用商。 折扣加深致毛利率下滑,金融資產及其他投資收益大幅增厚利潤。FY21公司毛利率下滑0.8ppt至65.6%,其中Kappa品牌毛利率下滑1.2ppt至68.4%,主要因疫情造成零售折扣加深。金融資產及其他投資收益淨額21.2億元,同比增長238%,其中投資分部貢獻利潤21.0億元,同大幅比增長269%,剔除投資分部後的經營利潤約為5,900萬元,對應經營利潤率3.0%,去年同期虧損約1,800萬元。 運營效率提升,業務模式不斷優化。公司存貨週轉天數同比降低54天至194天,現金循環週期同比減少36天至151天。公司業務模式持續轉型,通過類直營模式和數字化運營促進貨品全渠道高效流轉。 發展趨勢 管理層指引FY22淨開店100家,流水和收入實現低至中雙位數增長,店效實現中到高單位數增長。 盈利預測與估值 考慮公司收入增長超預期及投資收益有效增厚利潤,上調FY22 RPS預期9.9%至0.23元,並引入FY23 EPS預期0.25元,當前股價對應4.6/4.3倍FY22e/23e P/E,維持跑贏行業評級,上調基於分部加總估值目標價18%至1.40港元,有14%的上行空間。我們對服裝業務的估值為對應12倍FY22 P/E,此外我們對公司的多業務模式給予了45%的估值折讓。 風險 疫情長期持續,行業競爭加劇,改革不及預期。
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