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渣打預警內地人口快速老齡化 僅放寬生育政策並不足夠
渣打發表報告,指內地人口結構發生根本性轉變,人口快速老齡化,同時出生率下降。據第七次全國人口普查結果,該行認為未來數年中國將面臨四大人口挑戰,並對內地經濟、社會發展帶來深遠影響。

第一,內地人口總量或將在2025年開始下降,2020年底全國總人口為14.12億人,2010至2020年期間年平均增長率為0.53%,低於1960年代的大致年平均增長率2.5%。

第二,勞動年齡人口(15-64歲)數量自2014年開始下降。渣打估算到2050年,勞動力數量減少將拉低內地潛在增長率1.4個百分點,預計從2027年開始,拖累效應將加大,使得技術創新和生產效率提高對於拉動未來經濟增長更為關鍵。

第三,相比一些發達國家,中國在經濟發展的更早階段面臨人口快速老齡化的問題。2020年老齡人口(65歲及以上)在總人口的佔比從1978年的僅為4.6%上升至13.5%,渣打預計到2050年還將上升至28%。為應對人口老齡化所需的額外社保支出可能削弱中國長期增長潛力。

第四,2020年總和生育率(育齡期間每個婦女平均生育子女數)降至1.3,低於人口更替水準所需的2.1。2020年全國新出生人口僅為1,200萬人。儘管這一數據可能受到新冠疫情的影響,但卻是1949年以來,除1961年因大饑荒影響人口生育外,新生人口最少的年份。報告預計2021年到2050年育齡婦女(15至49歲)人數將減少約1億人,屆時每年新生人口或將降至800萬人。提高人口出生率需要的不僅僅是放寬生育政策。

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