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《大行报告》野村调整中资券商股目标价 指首选中信证券(06030.HK)及中金公司(03908.HK)
阿思达克 05-28 14:30
野村发表研究报告指,考虑到政策正常化及A股市场气氛自2月以来较弱,该行将2021及2022年A股日均成交额预测降16%及15%,现时估计2021至2023年各年日均成交额将分别按年增7%、5%及5%。尽管该行估计短期成交将减少,但居民资产配置於股市的情况长远将为结构性增长引擎,其中预期有较强财富管理业务的券商如中金公司(03908.HK)、以及有较强基金产品销售渠道的公司如中信证券(06030.HK)及华泰(06886.HK)将成主要受益者。

该行指出在承销业务方面,考虑到主板上市改革全面推出有所延迟,将今明两年IPO集资额规模降20%及25%,现时估计2021至2023年将分别按年增20%、40%及20%,相信影响将被後续募资规模提升所抵销,故该行将2021至2022年A股整体股权集资规模预测维持大致不变,但就将2021/22年企业债融资规模预测降5%及10%,以反映融资环境收紧的影响,同时相信近期收紧IPO上市规则虽带来短期影响,但长远将为有质素的增长铺路。

另外随着内地金融市场开放、佣金比率下降,相信行内竞争将继续加剧,令市场进一步整合,在这个大环境下,料具备较强组织及财富管理业务的行业龙头将继续跑赢。

该行将华泰、中国银河(06881.HK)目标价分别降0.81%及1.3%,并将中信证券、中金目标价升2%及0.2%,行业首选中信证券及中金,认为他们有较强的机构及财富管理业务,同时亦具国际化策略,同时亦倾向选择华泰,认为其估值相对较低,维持对中国银河「中性」评级。详细评级及目标价另表。

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