大和:芯片短缺令新車銷售受壓,建議聚焦特定投資主題
大和發表研究報吿指,中國大部份車企去年下半年盈利都有強勁復甦勢頭,惟車企均對今年看法較為審慎,主因首季整體新車銷售較2019年下跌4%,而汽車芯片短缺似乎會構成長期影響,因此建議聚焦在特定主題,包括豪華車、二手車、新能源車及智能車技術。
大和認為,芯片短缺的影響已進一步惡化,且相關影響在中國應該有所滯後兼遠高於市場預期,預期芯片短缺將令全年銷量減少100萬至120萬輛,故下調全年新車銷量增長預測至6%,此前預期增長9%。此外,二手車市場亦是另一個因素增加新車銷售壓力,去年二手車銷量約佔新車銷量的70%,估計在未來5年間,二手車銷量將按年增長9%至15%,併到25年超越新車銷量。
大和又指,新能源車和智能車技術在未來幾年仍是中國汽車行業的重要主題,建議投資者關注在精於AR擋風玻璃、域控制器和新能源車等領域的公司。
該行表示,在經銷商中,首選永達汽車(3669.HK),因其估值較低及有可能出售其汽車金融業務,目標價看20港元;新能源車製造商中則偏好比亞迪(1211.HK),目標價為235港元。另外,在傳統燃油車領域亦看好長城汽車(2333.HK)及福耀(3606.HK),評級買入。
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