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2月金融數據點評:社融供需兩旺,銀行基本面延續修復趨勢
格隆匯 03-11 09:44

2月金融數據反映社會融資供需兩旺,微觀經濟主體動能仍處修復進程。3月以來貨幣政策相對穩定,預計下階段資金市場利率相對平穩,銀行基本面延續修復趨勢,短期關注大行和低估值品種的防禦價值。

中國人民銀行公佈,2020年2月新增社融1.71萬億元(同比多增8363億元)、餘額增速13.3%(較上月上升0.3pct),新增人民幣貸款1.36萬億元(同比多增4543億元),廣義貨幣M2增速環比上升0.7pct至10.1%,狹義貨幣M1增速環比下降7.3pct至7.4%。

2月金融數據表現好於預期,需求端積極為主因。

2月單月新增社融1.71萬億,高於Wind一致預期的1.1萬億,亦明顯高於去年同期的8737億,需求積極推高表內外表現:1)人民幣貸款增加1.36萬億,高於Wind一致預期的9100億;2)需求樂觀推高企業開票量,疊加表內票據額度騰挪,表外票據同比多增近4600億。信用擴張樂觀,同時拉高廣義貨幣表現,M2增速較上月提升0.7pct至10.1%,春節錯位下1-2月M1增速呈現先上後下。

社融:需求驅動表內外同增,非標壓降節奏均衡化。

1)實體貸款增長較好:本外幣合計同比多增約6400億,去年疫情期間低基數疊加需求向好共同所致。

2)表外票據亦明顯高增:未貼現銀承當月同比多增約4600億,去年疫情開票受限+當前企業貿易積極+表內票據壓縮共同作用。

3)非標壓降節奏均衡化,信託+委託近兩月分別壓降-751/-1036,融資類信託監管壓降計劃或使目前月度壓降幅度延續。

4)債券供給收斂,未下達地方債提前發行額度疊加春節因素,信用債和政府債當月增量僅1306億/1017億。

貸款:供需緊平衡格局延續。

1)對公全力投放中長期貸款,儘管存在春節帶來的工作日減少因素,2月對公中長期貸款仍增長1.1萬億(近三年同期均值為5290億),預計製造業、基建類貸款投放均較為樂觀;

2)個貸季節性低位,當月居民短款和中長期貸款-2691億/+4113億,相較而言,地產銷售驅動的中長期貸款投放更為積極;

3)“額度儲備”項目繼續抑制:當月票據貸款-1855億,非銀貸款+180億,額度騰挪下繼續發揮額度儲備釋放作用(2020年2月兩項貸款合計+2420億)。

存款:春節季節性因素影響較大。

2月一般性存款增加8400億,較去年同期多增近7000億,因節前薪資發放、對公資金歸集等因素影響,當月居民存款增加3.3萬億,而對公存款下降2.4萬億。此外,值得注意的是,2月非銀存款顯著增加1.6萬億(2018年以來的第二高月份,僅次於20M7的1.8萬億),或源於2月權益市場活躍帶來的三方存管規模增加。市場關注2月M1增速大幅下降7.3pct的表現,我們認為仍主要是春節因素所致,環比數據更為清晰,2月M1環比-5.1%,而春節日期相近的13M2和18M2分別環比-4.9%/-4.8%,部分企業活期資金習慣於在春節至元宵期間進行集中歸集理財。

展望:逆週期因素抬高去年基數,3月社融增速或小幅回落。

結合當前供需環境,同時考慮去年3月再貸款集中投放的因素,我們預計3月央行口徑人民幣信貸投放量或在2.5萬億以上(20M3和19M3分別為2.85萬億/1.69萬億)。此外,考慮到地方專項債券提前批額度的下發和使用,預計當月社融增量有望在4.3萬億以上。

風險因素:

宏觀經濟增速大幅下滑,銀行資產質量超預期惡化。

投資觀點:宏觀需求持續向好,有益於銀行經營基本面改善。

2月金融數據反映社會融資供需兩旺,微觀經濟主體動能仍處修復進程。3月以來貨幣政策相對穩定,預計下階段資金市場利率相對平穩,銀行基本面延續修復趨勢,短期關注大行和低估值品種的防禦價值。長期而言,個股選擇可遵循兩條線索:1)阿爾法品種打底,優選具備特色商業模式和可持續客户、業務模式和盈利趨勢的優質銀行,如招商銀行、平安銀行;2)貝塔品種增強彈性,兼具業績彈性和估值彈性的品種具備“雙擊”潛力,可關注興業銀行、光大銀行、南京銀行和大行。 

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