植耀輝: 美債息續升股市震盪 港股調整未完
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(25日)急挫,10年期國債孳息率繼續上揚,引發金融市場震盪,科技股更成為跌市重災區,納指便大跌超過3.5%,創四個月以來最大單日跌幅,至於上日才創新高之道指亦下跌559點或1.75%,收報31,402點,標普500指數亦下跌2.45%,收報3,829點。不少科技股跌勢顯著,FANNG股全線下跌,當中蘋果公司(AAPL.US)下跌近3.5%,台積電(TSM.US)更下跌近5%。至於近期股價再度波動之GameStop(GME.US)則逆市上升,收報108.73美元,升幅達18.57%。
港股經過周三(24日)大跌後昨日(25日)出現反彈,恆指亦重上30,000點收市,成交量則回落至2,568億元。雖然港股走勢有所改善,然而不少急跌之股份卻未見反彈,個別更持續下跌,反映投資氣氛仍較謹慎。但這亦不難理解,畢竟上調印花稅之潛在影響仍有待觀察,同時北水雖然恢復淨流入,但亦只得17億元,而且亦只集中吸納中移動(00941.HK)等股份,所以筆者對後市之看法仍較為審慎,預期將繼續於29,700至30,000點水平上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有台積電股份)
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美10年期國債孳息高見1.6厘 憂慮加息升溫
耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(25日)美股三大指數急挫,市場出現股債齊跌情況,十年期國債孳息率急漲至一年高位,高見1.614厘水平,雖然聯儲局官員表明不擔心債息升勢,經濟增長前景改善,及通脹預期上升,債息同步上升是適當反應,但投資者預期未來加息機會上升,拖累股市走勢。道指最多下跌668點,反映市場恐慌情緒的VIX指數,急飆逾35%,尾段最高飆至31.16。科技股坐挫,納指最多挫近4%,Facebook(FB.US)、蘋果(AAPL.US)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOG.US)、亞馬遜(AMZN.US)跌幅逾3%;Tesla(TSLA.US)則急跌8%。近期市況波動,市場認為通脹升溫將會迫使聯儲局加息應對,目前十年期債息升穿1.6厘已超越標普500指數的平均股息率,對股市造成壓力,估值較高之科網企業將面臨較深調整。
港股於本周波幅異常,恆指於過去五個交易日的日均波幅接近700點水平,而期指波幅於過去兩日更接近900點,新舊經濟股走勢各異,資金輪動勢頭明顯。但整體來說指數每況愈下,本周更出現黃昏之星現象,假設恆指正式跌穿20天線即保力加通道中軸的話,意味大市此輪升浪將會完結,投資者需格外小心。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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