九興控股(01836.HK):2020年第4季銷售額優於預期,維持“買入”評級
機構:元大證券
評級:買入
事件
九興於 2021 年 1 月 14 日公佈 2020 年第 4 季銷售額數據。2020年第 4 季銷售總額同比下降 18.9%至 2.801 億美元,核心製造業務銷售額同比下降 18.8%。相比 2020 年前 9 個月銷售額同比下降29%,2020 年第 4 季降幅有所收窄。2020 年全年銷售總額比本中心預期高出 7%,系由於 2020 年第 4 季出貨量優於預期。
研究中心觀點
相比 2020 年前 9 個月銷售額同比下降 29%,2020 年第 4 季降幅(同比下降 18.9%)有所收窄:雖然九興 2020 年第 4 季出貨量同比下降 21.7%,但其 2020 年全年出貨量達 4340 萬雙,優於先前預期的 3900-4100 萬雙。鑑於產品需求可觀,一些原定於 2021年第 1 季交付的產品改為 2020 年第 4 季交付。這使得 2020 年第4 季和 2020 年全年銷售額優於預期。
2021 年前景向好:由於不確定的業務發展前景,九興管理層預計2021 年上半年出貨量將同比上漲 10%左右(約 2200 萬雙),但未給出 2021 年下半年預測。這相當於九興 2021 年下半年出貨量需同比增長 21%,才能實現本中心目前預測的 2021 年全年出貨量達 5000 萬雙。由於新型冠狀病毒疫苗的推出,以及有利的基數效應(2020 年下半年同比下降 23%),我們認為這一預測有望實現。
重申買進評等:本中心預計九興 2021 年盈利將出現強勁反彈。此外,我們的 2020 年盈利預期未發生改變,系因本中心 2020 年淨利潤預測(虧損 400 萬美元)和最新預測(利潤達 0-500 萬美元)差異較小。我們的目標價系依據 2021 年盈利預估值。九興目前股價相當於 11.3 倍 2021 年預估市盈率,過去 5 年市盈率區間為 6.7 倍-15.3 倍。
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