《大行报告》大摩今年最偏好创新药企及生科股 首选药明生物、翰森制药及信达生物 调整目标价
摩根士丹利发表研究报告，随着内地政府决心削减成本及激励创新，内地医药行业门槛提升，以期在国际层面竞争。该行料三家公司将受惠政策趋势，今年行业首选药明生物(02269.HK)、翰森制药(03692.HK)及信达生物(01801.HK)，并调整多家医药股目标价(见另表)。
报告称，去年内地医药股升62%(据MSCI数据)，属继资讯科技板块(77%)外第二佳。不过，升幅集中於创新药企业、生物科技股、CDMO(医药合同定制研发生产)、医疗科技及互联网医药；同期分销商、仿制药企业、传统中药股表现则乏善可陈。即使行业估值去年未大幅改变(介乎预测市盈率22至24倍)，细分板块之间估值差异巨大。具质素药厂及CDMO企业估值高达逾50倍至逾100倍，惟分销商及部分中药股估值仅相当於预测市盈率仅单位数。内地政策持续推动行业创新及升级。透过中央采购及医保谈判(NRDL)进行更合理的报销预算分配，将添压企业，促进创新及在具定价能力下提供差异化产品。更甚者，内地药厂必须重视创新，及在全球竞争上取胜。
大摩表示，随着报销直接导向创新药及跨国药厂带来竞争，该行最偏好创新药企及生物科技股。大摩料翰森制药(创新药)及信达生物(生物科技)可跑赢大市，主因其渠道产品可在全球竞争；两企在全球专利交易上亦见进取。其次，该行喜好研发服务药企，最喜好药明生物，主因其全球扩张及两倍於行业增长。
报告补充，新冠疫情加快互联网医药开拓，偏好阿里健康(00241.HK)及平安好医生(01833.HK)。另大摩称，医疗科技采用本地化为迈瑞医疗(300760.SZ)及微创医疗(00853.HK)带来崛起机遇，但集中采购带来的价格削减仍属拖累因素。该行料降价压力对仿制药厂的影响将延续至今年。
大摩指出，对医药分销行业的看法逐渐穿转向正面。随着直销药房专利药增加分销，料国药控股(01099.HK)及上海医药(02607.HK)作为龙头企业市占扩大将可变现。最後，在现时严谨报销预算下中医药股仍被边缘化，但一些快速增长的颗粒复方板块除外，如中国中药(00570.HK)及云南白药(000538.SZ)。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
