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天立教育(01773.HK):政策預期企穩並改善,簽約武漢洪湖學校,一季度或有年報行情,給予“買入”評級
格隆匯 01-04 15:40

機構:天風證券

評級:買入

十一以來教育部密集反饋並表態民辦教育及民辦義教且態度回暖,實施條例發佈預期延後。

我們判斷整體基調認為支持規範民辦教育發展,而非一刀切打壓。最近一次 12 月 7 日,教育部答覆《關於加強合力育人,助推民辦小學高質量發展的提案》提案時提出,“探索集團化、打造具有國際影響力和競爭力民辦教育品牌。教育部鼓勵和支持地方指導民辦學校不斷優化教育,教學質量水平,加強交流合作,擴大優質教育資源的覆蓋面。

”簽約武漢洪湖天立學校,2021 年 9 月開學。

據洪湖市政府官網,10 月 29 日,洪湖市人民政府與武漢天立教育集團舉行合作辦學簽約儀式,武漢天立美好新城學校簽約落户洪湖新灘經濟開發區美好新城。

武漢天立美好新城學校是由天立教育創辦,洪湖市政府引進的 12 年一貫制學校,學校位於新灘經濟開發區美好新城,項目用地 163.8 畝,投資 5 億元,學校設計小學、初中、高中三個學段,在校學生約 4000 人,計劃 2021年 9 月正式開學。

近期天立完成定增融資同時新籤校或持續突破。

近期公司配股 7 億港元已交易完成,用於①以合理價格整合優質教育資源;②拓展核心城市自建自營項目。

我們認為,一方面高線城市的佈局發展有利於升級天立品牌實力,探索先進教育理念,賦能提速低維發展。

另一方面,境內外優質教育資源的整合拓展有利於豐富資產結構,實現高度成長協同,豐富收入來源,提供高質量差異化服務。

學歷教育具備較清晰的發展路徑,同時優質教育資源及內容始終有旺盛市場需求。天立具備已驗證的標準化及擴張能力,在規範發展成熟運營下快速成長。

維持盈利預測,給予買入評級

天立憑藉自身辦學經驗有效豐富當地教育供給,藉助民辦特有靈活優勢提高運營效率;另一方面將有效減輕地方財政壓力,全國多數地方政府大都對民辦教育採取積極歡迎態度。我們預計天立 FY20-21 年淨利分別為人民3.9 億、5.3 億,對應 PE 分別為 36x、27x。

風險提示:招生不及預期,民促法實施條例尚未落地,核心高管流失。

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