保险行业点评：开门红渐行渐近，保险配置正当时，维持“强于大市”评级
机构：平安证券
评级：强于大市
事项：
12月14日，主要上市险企11月保费数据发布，寿险新单、车险保费仍维持下滑。
平安观点:
寿险业务：全面备战“开门红”，11 月新单持续下滑。
1）平安：队伍稳定、“开门红”预收火热，11 月个人新单同比-17%。11 月单月总新单 76 亿元（YoY-10%）、个人新单同比-17%，仍较大幅下滑，主要系 11 月正式打响“开门红”，产品竞争力较强且 20 年基数较低。
2）太保：11 月业务重心为长储销售和增员，预计 11 月新单仍有下滑。1-11 月总保费 2026 亿元（YoY-2%），11 月单月总保费 90 亿元（YoY-4%）。公司 11 月多效并举加大增员力度，预计长储和保障型产品有望保持较好增长，助力 21 年开门红新单、NBV 宽幅增长。
3）国寿：11 月以长储销售为主，预计新单下滑。1-11 月总保费 5862 亿元（YoY+8%）、11 月单月总保费 203 亿元（YoY-3%）。长储销售进度或因同业短储冲击、规模人力回落而有所放缓。叠加 20Q1 基数较高，预计 21 年开门红新单和 NBV 增幅或略逊于太保。
4）新华：11 月下旬开启“开门红”预热，叠加高基数，预计新单较大幅下滑。 1-11 月总保费 1526 亿元（YoY+17%）、11 月单月总保费 74 亿元（YoY-37%）。公司 19 年 11 月重启银保趸交，11 月、12 月共计销售 60 亿元，导致新单基数较高，预计 11 月新单较大幅下滑、队伍增长有望助 21 年开门红提振。
产险业务：车险保费降幅走阔。
1）车险：综合改革下，单月车险保费降幅再走阔。人保、平安 11 月单月车险保费分别 212 亿元（YoY-12%）、156 亿元（YoY-12%），导致当月产险保费分别同 比-14%、-12%。
2）保证险：人保已近乎停做。玖富、人人贷、宜人贷等 P2P 机构分别停新或清退，人保 2 月以来持续压降风险，11 月单月保费仅 0.2 亿元（YoY-99%）。
投资建议：银行理财产品吸引力下滑、竞争有限、短储销售具备推力，21 年开门红将有较大幅改善，叠加长端利率回升（现 3.3%），保险股将迎来基本面修复带来的估值修复行情。建议关注同期基数较低、业绩反转更大的中国太保。
风险提示：海外疫情发展超预期、权益市场大幅波动，信用风险集中暴露。代理人脱落超预期，新单保费增速不及预期。利率超预期下行风险。
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