小米集團-W(01810.HK)：把握時間窗口，加碼線下渠道，自建高端產線，維持“買入”評級，目標價33.1 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：33.1 港元
投資要點
公司通過配股及發行可轉換債券，預計籌資約40億美元。此次小米配售約10億股份，相當於已發行股份總數的約4.1%及投票權約1.5%，配售價格為23.7港元。配售股份將售予不少於六名獨立專業機構或個別投資者，預計籌資約30.6億美元。此外小米擬按初步換股價每股36.74港元，發行於2027年到期的零息有擔保可換股債券。以初步轉股價計算，債券可轉換為約1.8億股股份，相當於公司已發行股本約0.7%及投票權約0.3%。此次發行債券預計籌資為8.9億美元。此次籌資預計合計可達40億美元。
把握5G換機窗口搶佔市佔，加碼線下渠道，自建高端產線。目前公司現金及等價物約300億人民幣，銀行存款及理財產品約380億，再加上此次籌資，相關現金流動性儲備約940億。我們判斷，此次公司籌資主要目標是把握5G換機週期、華為勢弱以及榮耀尚未恢復供應的窗口期機遇。首先是提高自身高端手機產能，提升小米智能工廠出貨規模，避免出現米10缺貨現象；其次是加快推進小米之家在國內縣級的滲透，強化線下渠道資源。
海外“手機+IoT”高歌猛進，互聯網增速有望逐步回升。公司在歐洲通過運營商渠道逐步打開高端機型市場（歐洲運營商及公開市場渠道各佔一半）。3Q20公司在西歐運營商渠道佔比約4.6%，預計未來市佔仍有翻倍空間。與此同時，海外IoT依託手機品牌認知度與渠道優勢，通過大賣場以及小米之家（截至3Q20末海外約700家）以及針對不同國情的產品定製，三季度海外IoT收入同比增長56%，手環、滑板車及掃地機器人收入規模已超國內，預計海外IoTTAM為國內5倍以上，其較高的毛利率亦可對硬件利潤形成有力支撐。國內IoT在可穿戴、出行及廚電等領域亦具增長空間。伴隨海外用户基數的提升，廣告業務有望持續高增長，帶動毛利率提升。
投資建議：維持“買入”評級，根據股本變化下調目標價4%至33.1港元。公司三季度智能機表現大超預期反應了公司高端市場佈局初具成效，與海外運營商的合作有望持續提升份額。我們看好公司明後年的手機出貨增長，並加速IoT生態建設。依照當前業績增速，對應目標價33.1港元（估值基於2021年利潤的32倍PE+投資賬面價值3倍PB）。
風險提示：1）疫情對全球需求影響的不確定性；2）手機市場競爭激烈；3）空/冰/洗能否成功有待觀察。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
