《大行報告》花旗:華為出售榮耀對小米(01810.HK)構成下行風險 評級「沽售」
花旗發表的研究報告指,華為及深圳市智信新信息技術聯合公布收購榮耀品牌及其所有業務資產,之後華為將不持有新榮耀公司的股份,又強調交易反映市場主導投資拯救榮耀的行業鏈,認為是保障榮耀消費者、渠道賣家、供應商、夥伴及員工的最好方法,而擁有人改變將不影響榮耀的發展方向等。
該行指出榮耀與小米(01810.HK)於內地競爭激烈,而市場及銷售渠道等亦有很大程度的重疊,據IDC數據顯示榮耀上半年出貨量為2,900萬台,佔華為銷售的28%,當中大部分是出貨至內地市場,該行料榮耀退場將為小米帶來額外1,000萬至1,500萬台的出貨量,但假如榮耀繼續留在市場上,料小米2021年出貨量預測或現5%至10%的調整空間,而內地月活躍用戶及淨利預測則料會有10%及10-15%的調整空間。
該行認為市場低估了華為的盈利能力,而今次的宣布亦確認了其擔憂,由於榮耀未來的競爭力及架構等現時仍未清晰,相信市場或需要下調對小米的預期,故將為公司的盈利及估值帶來下行風險。雖然該行對小米近期發展看法正面,但認為其風險回報並不吸引,而今次的交易或會為公司帶來下行風險,予「沽售」評級,目標價19.3元。
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