中芯國際(00981.HK):先進製程進展順利,上調全年收入預測,維持“強烈推薦”評級
機構:方正證券
評級:強烈推薦
行業旺季疊加華為拉單,3Q 業績超預期,上修全年營收指引。 3Q20 為晶圓代工傳統旺季,疊加華為 915 前拉單影響,公司三季度收入 10.83 億美元,創歷史新高。收入環比增 1.44 億,其中 14/28nm 收入環比增 5,734 萬,40/55nm 收入環比增 2,764萬,兩者貢獻了總收入增長的 59%,可見 12 寸廠是 3 季度主要增長動因,本期其他收入環比增 7,265 萬,貢獻總收入增長的50%。公司本期上調全年營收指引至同比增長 24%至 26%。
美國出口管制影響可控,下調 2020 全年 Capex 計劃。公司 10 月 4 日公告受到美國出口管制,美國設備採購期拉長或影響中芯國際擴產進程,公司本期將 2020 全年 Capex 從 67 億下調至 59 億美元。公司表示目前正常運營,短期雖產生一定影響,但影響可控。
成熟製程:擴產進程中保持滿載,ASP 提高,受益手機產業鏈備貨。公司截至 9 月末總產能從 2Q20 的 480k 每月提高到 510k每月,產能利用率已連續 5 個季度高於 97%,景氣度維持在高 位。下游產品中,PMIC、RF、Fingerprient、CIS 收入增長顯著,智能手機相關產品本期佔收入比重為 46%,受益於智能手機產業鏈備貨,成熟製程產能有望持續保持滿載。
先進製程:增長迅速,看好四季度礦機訂單填補空缺。14/28nm本期佔比提升至 14.6%,增長迅速,N+1 本期已進入小量試產。由於 915 後特定客户不能下單,先進製程面臨產品結構調整。公司目前先進製程有超過 10 家客户,考慮到四季度加密貨幣行情波動較大,礦機市場供不應求,我們判斷礦機訂單四季度有 望填補部分 FinFET 產能。未來隨着更多產品導入,先進製程仍 將是公司增長的重要驅動力。
全年測算:上調全年收入預測至 38.9 億美金。考慮到三季度超預期及四季度景氣延續,我們上調全年營收預測至 38.9 億美金,全年同比增長 24.8%。由於上半年擴出的產能逐漸開始折舊,毛利率四季度預估下滑至 17.5%,2020 全年預估為 24%。
投資建議:
中芯國際是國產晶圓代工龍頭,成熟製程受益智能手機產業鏈備貨預計持續滿載,先進製程持續研發。我們預計公司 2020-2022 年實現收入 38.89/41.12/46.27 億美元,每股淨資產為 1.87/1.93/1.99 美元,對應當前市值的 PB 為 1.61、1.56、1.51 倍,維持“強烈推薦”評級。
風險提示:擴產後折舊提高或使毛利率承壓;技術研發不及預期;行業競爭加劇;中美貿易摩擦加劇。
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