一文了解券商於阿里(09988.HK)公布季绩後最新观点、评级及目标价
早前宣布煞停旗下蚂蚁集团中港上市计划的阿里巴巴(09988.HK)昨晚公布第二财季业绩後,今日早市股价下跌3.6%收284元,券商指阿里季绩稍胜预期,但股价调整相信是反映市场担心对其基本面正监管风险。
阿里巴巴昨晚(5日)公布截至9月底止第二财季业绩,收入为1,550.59亿元人民币按年增长30%。经营利润为136.34亿人民币减少33%,主要由於与蚂蚁集团相关并授予公司员工的股权激励费用上升157.53亿人民币。若不考虑该影响,阿里第二财季经营利润将由上年同期的206.67亿人民币,增长44%至296.9亿元胜预期。经调整EBITDA增长28%至475.25亿元。经调整EBITA增长28%至412.16亿元。归属於普通股股东的净利润为287.69亿元,减少60%,主要原因是在去年9月份季度取得蚂蚁集团33%股份时确认的一次性重大收益。
【季绩符预期 忧监管风险】
麦格理发表报告表示,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)第二财季季盈利表现稍胜预期,对整体盈利前景稍作调整,对其2021年至2023年盈利预测稍作调整,升阿里ADR目标价至394美元,但对阿里港股的目标价则下调至380元以反映港汇强势。该行指,阿里季绩稍胜预期,已在市场预期之内,股价调整相信是反映市场担心对其基本面正监管风险,对其信心稍为转弱,而非基於第二财季业绩表现,若股价调整幅度持续,该行相信为良好买入机会,维持「跑赢大市」评级。
瑞信发表研究报告指,阿里巴巴(第二财季业绩符预期,期内收入按年增30%,而按非通用会计准则计算,EBITA则升28%。该行认为阿里巴巴正面因素包括是核心电商业录按年增长两成,而天猫的GMV亦增长两成,淘宝的增长则达逾10%,分成比例稳定。另一方面,商城以外的业务亏损狠窄,而本地服务增长亦加快至29%,公司管理层对「双11」看法亦正面,将阿里港股目标价由354元升至364元,评级「跑赢大市」。
本网最新综合7间券商其投资评级及目标价:
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
麦格理│跑赢大市│391->380元
汇丰环球研究│买入│364->366元
瑞信│跑赢大市│354->364元
杰富瑞│买入│363元
大和│买入│348->350元
高盛│买入(「确信买入」名单)│350元
美银证券│买入│343->342元
-----------------------
观点│
麦格理│对其2021年至2023年盈利预测稍作调整
汇丰环球研究│第二财季续提高市场份额
瑞信│季绩巩固,料受惠「双11」活动延长有强劲表现
杰富瑞│改善直播业务和淘宝交易改善,继续改善新业务基础
大和│有望「双11」带来强劲核心商务收入增长
高盛│季业符预期,非通用会计准则纯利胜预期
美银证券│核心电商收入良好,淘宝交易及市场份额加大
摩根大通│非核心业务结构性盈利能力改善
瑞银│「双11」购物节可抵消蚂蚁冲击和电子商务投资放缓情况
(ta/w)
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