信義光能(00968.HK)：行業景氣旺盛，給予“買入“評級，目標價16.20 港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：16.20 港元
光伏玻璃價格近期持續上升，屬於短期利好因素
光伏玻璃價格近期持續上升，均價(3.2mm鍍膜)由 9 月初的每平米 30.0 元人民幣上升23.3%至 10 月 7 日的每平米 37.0 元人民幣，主要因為 (一)第四季光伏發電搶裝潮來臨；(二)光伏行業的上游產品價格依然高企；(三)第四季缺乏重大新增產能。例如，信義光能的四條位於安徽省蕪湖市的 1,000 噸生產線明年才可投產。由於本季發電搶裝潮才剛開始，我們預期光伏玻璃價格可以再次上升，短期有利公司收入及毛利率。
十四五規劃可望加強新能源行業發展，長遠有利光伏玻璃生產商
國家領導人習近平上月在聯合國大會上宣佈，中國將在 2030 年達到二氧化碳排放量高峯，並在 2060 年實現“碳中和”(即二氧化碳排放量=減放量)。換言之，新能源行業未來將有較高增長空間。即將公佈的十四五規劃可望加強新能源行業發展，這可增加對新能源設備需求，長遠有利中上游企業，例如光伏玻璃生產商。
上調盈利預測
考慮到上述短期和長期因素，我們分別上調 2020-2022 年股東淨利潤預測 4.3%、11.8%、17.3% (見圖表 1)。
調升目標價及評級至“買入”
我們相應地將貼現現金流(DCF)分析推算的目標價由 11.20 港元上調 44.6%至 16.20 港元(見圖表 2-3)，這對應 27.3 倍 2021 年市盈率和 21.1%上升空間，並將評級由“增持”上調至“買 入”。
風險提示：(一)項目延誤；(二)併網電價大幅下跌；(三)光伏玻璃價格波動；(四)燃料成本急速上升。
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